900k coronavirus cases, 21,000 deaths from COVID-19 in Middle East

Jordan is a standout with only 1,015 reported cases, but the cases appear to be increasing from back in May when there were only 730.

By SETH J. FRANTZMAN
An internally displaced Syrian girl wears a face mask as members of the Syrian Civil defence sanitize the Bab Al-Nour internally displaced persons camp, to prevent the spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Azaz, Syria March 26, 2020 (photo credit: KHALIL ASHAWI / REUTERS)
An internally displaced Syrian girl wears a face mask as members of the Syrian Civil defence sanitize the Bab Al-Nour internally displaced persons camp, to prevent the spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Azaz, Syria March 26, 2020
(photo credit: KHALIL ASHAWI / REUTERS)
The number of COVID-19 cases in the Middle East continues to grow as cases were estimated to surpass 900,000 on Sunday. Overall 894,611 cases have been recorded across the Middle East from Morocco to Iran. Several countries do not report accurately, meaning the numbers are likely higher than official counts in Libya, Yemen and Syria.
Increases across the region do not show a slow in the rate of new cases. For instance, in the last two weeks in Lebanon cases have increased 12% from 1,350 to 1,536. A similar increase in percentage was found in Israel, Iran, Algeria, and the UAE. However much worse changes took place in the Palestinian Authority, Libya, Egypt, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Yemen, where the increase often reached 30%. That means that on June 9, for instance, Saudi Arabia had 105,283 cases and on June 21 had 154,233 cases. At the end of May Saudi Arabia had 81,766 cases. In Lebanon, by contrast, there were 1,172 cases on May 30 and 1,536 cases on Saturday. The data has been compiled by the Middle East Center for Reporting and Analysis which keeps a weekly tally of cases based on the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Research Center’s daily data.
Jordan is a standout with only 1,015 reported cases, but the cases appear to be increasing from back in May when there were only 730. Tunisia is among the best because it has only 1,156 cases and has had increases in the single digits over the last two weeks. Turkey, which initially was one of the worst hit countries in the region, appears to have slowed the number of new cases as well. Iran, by contrast, had the problem under control but may be experiencing new problems. The least number of cases are found in Libya – only 544 – Yemen and Syria. But these numbers are suspect because of the civil wars in each country and the international community doing nothing to help with testing. This means in these countries there may be many more cases, but we won’t know because no one tests. Yemen, with only 922 cases, has 254 deaths, which is similar to Morocco where there are 213 deaths and 9,839 cases on June 21. That means Yemen’s real case number is probably closer to 10,000.
Of the 21,000 deaths the worst hit countries are Iran and Turkey. Almost 10,000 have officially died in Iran and almost 5,000 in Turkey. Meanwhile, other hard-hit countries are Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Iraq. There are more than 2,000 dead in Egypt. Algeria has 837 deaths. The Gulf states have high numbers of cases but relatively low deaths rates. There are 21,300 cases in Bahrain with only 60 deaths. The UAE has 301 deaths and 44,000 cases. This means that the Gulf states appear to have been good at testing and confronting the virus in hospitals.
Overall the trend is one in which the Middle East had an early peak at the end of February and early March as cases spread from Iran, but the region appeared to have it under control in April and May, only to continue to see the COVID-19 cases increase in June. This represents the “second wave” model some speak about. Across the region different measures of lockdowns have been used, with many countries trying to return to a semblance of normality. International travel and tourism has disappeared and countries that rely on tourism or business travelers are suffering greatly.