On September 15, 2020, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain signed the historic Abraham Accords in the White House under the auspices of the US, consummating a long, covert process of the slow warming up of relations.
Two countries soon joined the peace circle in different capacities, namely Sudan and Morocco, and it seemed to be only a matter of time until other countries would join, the crown jewel being the kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
However, a series of unfortunate events on the political and military fields pushed the prospects of peace between Israel and one of the most important Middle Eastern powerhouses farther away. Is peace even achievable anymore?
The Magazine reached out to veteran Saudi journalist Abdulaziz Alkhamis, Saudi academic-analyst Najat AlSaied, and Israeli expert Eli Bar On, all members of MENA2050, to hear their analysis on the chances of Saudi-Israeli peace, the dangers of Islamism, and hope for a better future in the Middle East.
MENA2050 is an organization for regional development composed of members from all religions and countries across the Middle East and North Africa, which strives to build a vision and provide concrete measures for a better future for the next generation.
Abdulaziz Alkhamis
A veteran Saudi journalist and writer, Abdulaziz Alkhamis serves on the executive committee of MENA2050. He’s also known for his work on Islamist movements and for founding Saudi Arabia’s first human rights organization. Active on social media, particularly on X, Alkhamis seeks to bridge the gap between Western and Arab audiences through analysis and news.
At MENA2050, Alkhamis aims to foster dialogue across the Middle East. “We are a distinctly apolitical framework. This is an initiative for hope for people in the region, to allow people to cooperate away from racism, to promote understanding,” he explained. The organization focuses on shared regional challenges such as resources, climate change, education, and stability, emphasizing the importance of direct discourse between Arabs and Israelis.
“Our meetings are usually 90% Arab and 10% Israelis, and the idea is that we don’t address the conflict directly,” he said.
Alkhamis believes that many of the region’s issues stem from a lack of communication. “Everyone thinks they are right; they just don’t listen to the others, thinking that they’re the enemy,” he noted, explaining that the organization prioritizes dialogue on common concerns.
When asked about the way some people in the Middle East reject even the notion of being with an Israeli in the same room, Alkhamis answered with a smile: “We don’t care about them. In fact, even inside the Arab world there are many intrigues of people not liking each other. What we care about is direct discourse.”
He further explained that acceptance toward Israelis grew stronger following the Abraham Accords, since they made interactions with Israelis more common. “You began seeing Israelis in restaurants and hotels. This is a prelude for peace,” the Saudi journalist stressed.
Adversaries of peace
Both Iran and Hamas hinted to the fact that the Oct. 7 massacre was meant to halt the ongoing process of normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel. When asked whether the two were successful in his view, Alkhamis stressed: “We all know that peace is the only solution. We all understand that they tried to stop this process because peace between Saudi Arabia and Israel would change the face of the region and bring hope to all of us.
“The Iranians, and especially [Supreme Leader Ali] Khamenei, know that if Israel and Saudi Arabia would work together, it will go against their interests,” he said, adding that Iran’s leaders fear the isolation that would come with regional cooperation.
On Saudi reactions to the Oct. 7 events, Alkhamis noted that initial responses varied. “Some did not understand what exactly happened and thought it was a victory. My colleagues and I tried to educate and explain the massacre’s implications. We predicted that Gaza would pay a heavy price and face attacks, particularly from the Muslim Brotherhood. I was accused of being a Zionist, yet now some who opposed me are saying the same thing,” he remarked.
Alkhamis is confident that Saudi-Israeli peace will eventually happen, driven by mutual benefits and Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman’s [MBS’s] Vision 2030. He contended that a new, more reliable and less corrupt Palestinian Authority is needed in order to advance peace. “We have a serious problem with the Palestinian Authority, which doesn’t boast a strong enough leadership to talk to the Israelis. They cooperate under the table and yell at them above the table,” he commented.
According to Alkhamis, Saudi Arabia is waiting for progress in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, but the current lack of consensus on a two-state solution complicates the situation, as he does not believe that Palestinians are prone to agree to a situation of remaining stateless.
He emphasized the importance of preserving hope for Palestinians while ensuring Israel’s security. “We must allow hope for the Palestinians, while making sure that the Palestinian entity does not affect Israel’s security. Israel must say not only what it is against but what kind of Palestinian state it can accept. This will definitely help Saudis move forward with peace,” Alkhamis advised.
He suggested that Arab-Israeli-American cooperation is crucial to creating a Palestinian state that does not compromise Israel’s security. “So far, having your security needs in the hands of the IDF alone has not proven itself to be very efficient,” he pointed out.
The Islamist threat
Alkhamis highlighted the threat posed by Islamist movements, particularly the Muslim Brotherhood. He explained that these groups are a significant source of instability and should be seen as an impediment to peace. “It all goes back to the Muslim Brotherhood.
“Al-Qaeda, Bin Laden, his successor Ayman Al-Zawahiri – they all originate in the Brotherhood, and more specifically in the Brotherhood’s jihadist stream,” he noted, criticizing the West for initially viewing the Brotherhood as a moderate force.
Alkhamis contended that the Muslim Brotherhood’s influence has led to the radicalization of many in the West, pointing out the example of many mosques in Germany that came under its control. “These mosques are used to produce terrorists. Terrorism is not only explosions and violent attacks; it’s also in the mind, in education,” he warned.
He also pointed out that despite mistakes made in the past, recent events, particularly the Oct. 7 massacre, have led Western governments to reevaluate their stance on Islamist groups, especially their connections to terrorism.
Alkhamis concluded by emphasizing the need for cooperation and dialogue to combat radicalism and build a more peaceful future. “We must work to show the others our humanity, to help innocents in Gaza and Israel, to show that we can get through the current conflict. We need to combat radical groups in Islam and in Israel. We need a liberal center of gravity because there is so much to do for the new generation,” he said.
“The circle of peace is only expanding. As with all things, the events of Oct. 7 will eventually become history, and peace will prevail.”
Najat AlSaied
Najat AlSaied is also a member of MENA2050, a former researcher at the Emirates Centre for Strategic Studies and Research in Abu Dhabi, and former assistant professor at Zayed University in Dubai Academic. She wrote her PhD in the field of strategic communication and crisis management, and is the author of Twitter Diplomacy: Media Polarization Before and After the Abraham Accords, which deals with issues of campaigns, online discourse, and peace.
“As long as the region suffers from instability, we will never reach development,” she stressed. “Political Islamist groups are using the conflict to inflame their extremist ideologies, and this chaos simply means lack of progress.”
AlSaied explained that she was always a supporter of peace, even before the Abraham Accords. “My first ideas for peace started in high school, but I never dared to express them out loud because it was such a taboo. In this context, the accords were a relief for me and I could finally speak out; I was waiting for 20 years!”
The Saudi academic explained that she wasn’t surprised that the UAE was the first to sign the accords, mentioning the country’s tolerant approach. “Saudi Arabia has some political obstacles that they must overcome before this is possible. They started their modernization process only recently, in 2017, and were under a strict conservative rule for a long time, until MBS came to power.”
AlSaied believes that US politics heavily impacts the prospects of Middle East peace. “I’ll be frank here. The 2020 shift in the US toward the current administration took us back years. The current administration’s very existence empowers extremists, political Islamists, and chaos everywhere – West and East,” she stressed. “Put this in bold: THERE WILL NEVER BE A PEACE AGREEMENT UNDER A CHAOTIC ENVIRONMENT.
“You can’t build a tower on shaky foundations – the whole building will collapse. And this shaky foundation is, unfortunately, what the current US administration has led to.”
AlSaied holds that the US is crucial to build this peace. “Some Israelis thought that they could achieve this alone, but it’s not possible. Trust between Israelis and Arabs is not strong enough. When I talk about peace, I mean full diplomatic relations and warm peace with the people, not like Jordan and Egypt. There is much suspicion between the sides, and the media increases hostility,” she said.
“We need a mediator. But when it is corrupt, it just doesn’t work,” she added, hinting at the current US administration.
Enemies of peace
According to AlSaied, there are two main adversaries for peace. “The first is political Islam, in both its Shi’ite and Sunni incarnations: Iran and its militias, as well as the Muslim Brotherhood, and Qatar, which plays a double game with the West.”
Much like Alkhamis, AlSaied holds that Iran feeds off chaos and instability. “The regime in Iran – and notice that I’m not talking about Iran but about the Islamic regime – is deliberately causing chaos in the region. Stability is not good for them; peace and people getting along are not good for them. Saudi-Israeli peace would be a total disaster for them. They bring this instability both on the ground and through their media empire,” she said.
“By the way, the fact that one is Sunni and one Shi’ite doesn’t bother them. Political Islamists always ‘forget’ their sectarian feuds when their interests are calling, namely exerting their rule over the region.”
The second type of enemies of peace according to AlSaied are the various anti-Israel and antisemitic groups. “It’s true, the majority of the Arab public are anti-Israel. I am part of a very small minority, which is why we have much hard work ahead of us. We were going forward, and the reversal of the last administration took us to square one and empowered the radicals,” she added grimly.
“The general public in Arab countries have been raised to hate Israel. They heard nothing but ‘Israel the enemy,’” she lamented.
DESPITE THIS, AlSaied holds that Western media carries this blame as well. “Western media bring forth the unfounded Palestinian narrative alone. They focus on reaction and not action. Of course we’re all against the death of civilians, but still you must be logical enough to focus and know what the actual cause is. Why are they acting as if Oct. 7 never happened? Why do they not talk about the hostages and the torture they go through?”
When asked if Oct. 7 is a reason to postpone Israeli-Saudi peace, AlSaied responded: “Iran doesn’t live without chaos and instability, and this is part of the reason for the Oct. 7 attack. Regardless, I don’t believe that without Oct. 7 the Saudis would have gone forward with peace. Saudi Arabia has conditions for this peace, and one of them is a Palestinian state, as well as other interests from the US,” she said.
“But especially after the attack of the Biden administration against the kingdom and the Crown Prince, I don’t think the Saudis would have trusted such an administration to go forward with peace.”
Asked if she is optimistic, AlSaied replied with a rather decisive “No. At the current stage, no. I may be optimistic after the US elections, but it depends on the outcomes. If another like-minded administration comes to power, I will have to leave political communications and stay in media relations, and there will be no peace,” she predicted.
“It would be over, and Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood would win in the US.”
Eli Bar-On
Co-founder and CEO of MENA2050 and former senior legal official in the Israeli public sector, Eli Bar-On provided a critical perspective on the current state and prospects of normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
“Normalization may not have gone into the freezer, but it is definitely in the fridge,” he said, explaining that while there were accelerated efforts toward normalization under American auspices before Oct. 7, the move has encountered significant difficulties due to the war in Gaza.
“The harsh scenes from the war in Gaza took over all the screens around the world in general and the Arab world in particular, and made progress toward normalization even more sensitive,” he said, emphasizing the renewed centrality of the Palestinian issue for the Arab world and globally.
Bar-On reflected on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict’s role in broader regional dynamics. He noted that even those who once believed the conflict could be isolated from other rapprochement processes now realize that reconciliation between Palestinians and Israelis is inextricably linked to broader regional peace efforts.
“Now even those people understand that the reconciliation process between the Palestinians and Israelis cannot be effectively separated from other rapprochement processes in the region,” he pointed out.
Regarding the long-term prospects of normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia, Bar-On expressed confidence that it is a matter of “when,” not “if.” He pointed to Saudi Arabia’s ambitious Vision 2030 plan, which includes futuristic mega-projects like NEOM city, as a significant factor.ISRAEL, as a regional power, could play an important role in these initiatives, he argued. “Saudi Arabia has far-reaching ambitions in the regional and global arena. Israel as a regional power can have an important role in all these moves, and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has already called Israel a ‘potential ally’ in the past. His attitude has not changed,” Bar-On asserted.
However, MENA2050’s co-founder also acknowledged the delicate balancing act that Saudi Arabia must perform, as the kingdom is not only a leader in the Arab world but also in the Muslim world, requiring careful navigation of its internal and external challenges. Bar-On highlighted a recent statement by MBS, who warned that pursuing peace could endanger his life, much like the late Egyptian president Anwar Sadat, who was assassinated for making peace with Israel. “It’s a statement that shows how sensitive the system in which he operates is,” he noted.
Bar-On emphasized that MBS will need to demonstrate how normalization benefits both the Saudi people and the broader Arab and Muslim worlds, particularly by presenting tangible achievements for Palestinian aspirations.
MENA2050’s CEO advised Israel to approach normalization with caution and with a clear strategy. He stressed the importance of addressing concerns about racism and extremism within Israel, showing respect for the needs of neighboring countries, and developing a road map that outlines Israel’s expectations from the Palestinians and what Israel is willing to offer in return.
“It will happen at the right time – but it won’t happen by itself,” he warned. Bar-On also called for introspection on the Palestinian side, urging their leadership to take responsibility for past failures in the peace process.
LOOKING AHEAD, Bar-On sees Saudi Arabia as a potential global power, with MBS setting the trajectory for the region’s future. He believes Israel could be a natural partner in this vision, alongside other countries like the UAE, led by Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ). However, for these partnerships to succeed, Bar-On stressed that Israel must demonstrate a genuine commitment to peace and avoid actions that could embarrass the Arab countries extending a hand of peace.
“We have real friends here in the region, I can assure you of that,” he stated.
Reflecting on the broader implications of the events of Oct. 7, Bar-On described it as a “watershed moment” that has pushed the Palestinian issue back to the forefront of global attention, overshadowing other significant geopolitical events like the war in Ukraine. While the conflict has temporarily stalled regional integration efforts, he is relieved that previous successes have not been undone.
Bar-On also discussed the role of the US in the normalization process, particularly under the current administration. He noted that while the Biden administration has shown unprecedented support for Israel during the war, the upcoming American elections add complexity to the situation.
“We are in an election year in America, and for a significant number of democratic voters, support for Israel is seen as harming the helpless Palestinians in Gaza,” Bar-On explained. This political climate increases the administration’s urgency to reach a ceasefire in Gaza and to ensure that any normalization deal with Saudi Arabia includes a more concrete Palestinian component.”
Despite the challenges, Bar-On remains optimistic, drawing hope from his work at MENA2050, where he collaborates with peace-loving individuals from across the region. “The past year has been the hardest of our lives for anyone living in the Holy Land, but we will get out of it eventually and work on creating a better future,” he said.
However, Bar-On emphasized that optimism alone is not enough; concerted action is also required. MENA2050 is working on a regional vision that aims to bring prosperity to all members of the region, without exception. “This work is not the domain of activists like me alone. Everyone who lives in this area should work to promote peace and stability,” he urged.
The MENA2050 co-founder also called on Israelis to actively build connections with people across the region, leveraging social networks and travel opportunities to Arab countries with peace agreements. He encouraged Israelis to showcase the positive aspects of their country, denounce hatred and extremism, and engage in respectful dialogue with their neighbors.
“Through such discourse, which is based on mutual appreciation and respect,” Bar-On concluded, “we can march our region into a much better future than we have known from our past – and our dismal present.”