Turkey’s Defense Minister has indicated that Russia will host another round of talks about Syria on Tuesday in which Turkey and Iran will participate.
This is a format that dates from last year as Russia seeks to normalize ties between Turkey and Syria. Turkey has been participating in the talks in the past but they have not advanced as far as Moscow would like. Turkey faces elections in May and had a massive earthquake in February that has reduced Ankara’s focus on these talks.
According to Turkey’s defense minister, Ankara is preparing for a meeting to be attended by the defense ministers and intelligence chiefs of the countries. Anadolu media in Turkey reported the meeting, saying that a “meeting of defense ministers and intelligence chiefs of Turkey, Russia, Syria and Iran will be held in Moscow on Tuesday.” The last meeting of the defense ministers was in December last year, although Iran was not present. Hulusi Akar said that Iran is participating, making the meeting a “quartet.”
Ankara claims that it supports Syrians returning to Syria “voluntarily.” Since the start of the Syrian civil war, millions of Syrians have fled to Turkey. Turkey hosted them but over time, their presence has led to controversies. Ankara has cracked down on their freedom, part of a wider crackdown and rising authoritarianism in Turkey. After the recent earthquakes, many Syrians lived in areas that were destroyed and they made up thousands of the casualties of the quake. Many returned to Syria to bury loved ones. This led to even more focus on their plight.
The difficulty for Ankara is that it has openly supported the Syrian rebels since 2012. It has also sought to shift the rebels and co-opt them as proxies to use them to fight the US-backed SDF and other Kurdish groups such as the YPG. Turkey calls the YPG and SDF “terrorists.” The Syrian regime meanwhile wants Turkey to withdraw from parts of northern Syria it has occupied for the last seven years.
The situation is complicated
This creates a complex situation. Russia backs the Syrian regime and also sells Turkey S-400 air defense systems. Russia is also against NATO, but Turkey is a member of NATO. The US is ostensibly an ally of Turkey but Ankara uses drones to carry out strikes on SDF commanders, many of whom work closely with the US. Iran, Turkey, Russia and the Syrian regime all oppose the US presence in eastern Syria. Recent reports say a Russian air defense system tried to shoot down a US drone last year. In addition, pro-Iranian groups have carried out almost 80 attacks on areas where the US is present in Syria over the last two years. Iran also uses Syria to threaten Israel.
All of this creates a lot of complexity. Some countries are courting Syria today, such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt and other Gulf states. But the US has sanctions on the Syrian regime, Russia and Iran. If Syria and Turkey reconcile this would pressure Qatar to also reconcile with Damascus. Considering the fact that Saudi Arabia reconciled with Iran, this could be yet another example of reconciliation in the region. But if Ankara is seen as abandoning the Syrians in places like Idlib, this could lead to blowback in Turkey and possible attacks.
There are a large number of extremist groups that operate in Turkish-occupied areas in northern Syria. For instance, the US carried out a recent raid against an ISIS commander who was residing near Jarabulus. In addition, the US has targeted ISIS members and other extremists in Idlib. Any kind of talks by Turkey, Iran, Russia and the Syrian regime will surely have ramifications for the US role in Syria, Iran’s entrenchment and Syria’s role in the Arab League. If Russia can broker a deal, Moscow will also showcase its influence.
Ankara slammed the US on April 24 because the US recognizes the Armenian genocide. Turkey-US tensions have risen over the last few years. This also affects the upcoming meeting on Syria.