The United States has always had a complicated relationship with the Middle East. But after years of US military intervention in the region and an ongoing cold war-like relationship between Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (known as MBS) and the Biden Administration, China is stepping in to fill the regional diplomatic role that was once the exclusive domain of United States.
Is the US losing influence in the Middle East? Like the region, the answer is complicated.
“If you just look at Saudi [Arabia], yes. It has changed a lot, especially since MBS has been in power. It used to be just lockstep; they were a sure-thing ally. It’s not like that anymore. It is very unpredictable,” Dr. Melinda McClimans, assistant director of Ohio State University’s Middle East Studies Center and co-author of the book Keys to Understanding the Middle East, told The Media Line.
Mohammed bin Salman, the seventh son of King Salman, was named crown prince on June 21, 2017, and then prime minister of the kingdom on September 27, 2022.
The US Central Intelligence Agency alleges that MBS ordered the 2018 assassination of Jamal Khashoggi, a columnist at The Washington Post who had been critical of the kingdom.
Analysts believe a team of 15 Saudi agents took part in the murder, at the Saudi Consulate in Turkey. After strangling Khashoggi, the Saudi agents dismembered his body with a bone saw.
In 2019, then-candidate for the US presidency Joe Biden vowed to make Saudi Arabia an international “pariah” that would “pay the price” for the targeted murder.
Saudi Arabia denies that MBS was involved and claims that the Saudi agents responsible for butchering Khashoggi went rogue.
In 2021, as president, Biden declassified a Federal Bureau of Investigation report alleging a connection between the 9/11 terrorists and Omar al-Bayoumi, who the FBI claims was a Saudi intelligence agent living in the US. Fifteen of the 19 Islamic terrorists who attacked the US on September 11, 2001, were Saudi nationals. The FBI report also claims that Saudi diplomat Fahad al-Thumairy was involved.
The Saudi Embassy in Washington, DC, released a statement saying, “Any allegation that Saudi Arabia is complicit in the September 11 attacks is categorically false.”
McClimans said the relationship with Saudi Arabia was entering a new phase under Mohammad Bin Salman.
“It is a new paradigm with MBS ... the Kissinger era seems to be over,” she said.
The influence of Henry Kissinger in Middle East diplomacy
Henry Kissinger, the US’s first Jewish secretary of state, arrived in the US as a refugee from Nazi Germany, a regime he later fought against as an officer in the US Army during World War II. As secretary of state in the 1970s, Kissinger acted as an intermediary between Israel and Arab countries to achieve disengagement after the 1973 Yom Kippur War. His intense traveling back and forth between nations in an attempt to resolve international disputes became known as “shuttle diplomacy.”
“The ‘Kissinger Era’ in Middle East diplomacy refers to the years when he brokered agreements based on the idea that Israel should give up tangible assets in exchange for something less than actual peace,” Moshe Phillips, a veteran Zionist activist and former national director of the US division of Herut North America – The Jabotinsky Movement, told The Media Line via email.
“After Kissinger left office, the dynamics of Arab-Israeli diplomacy changed, in ways that Kissinger, for all his reputed brilliance, never expected,” Phillips said. “Egypt’s [President Anwar] Sadat realized the only way to get back the entire Sinai was to sign a peace treaty with Israel, and so he did. [PLO chief] Yasser Arafat realized that the only way to get an almost-sovereign territory and a de facto army was to sign a peace agreement with Israel, so he did. Jordan, and then more recently several [Persian] Gulf kingdoms, decided it was more advantageous to them to sign peace treaties with Israel, so they did.”
“MBS is clearly pushing this because he knows the rules-based order is not going to stand for Saudi Arabia being able to use their petro hostage-taking to allow him to be able to be acting illegally as he does. And you see him doing it through the United Arab Emirates, for example, allowing China to open up a port in the UAE.”
Ruben Gallego
China filling the diplomacy void in the Middle East as US influence wanes
With the US no longer at the fulcrum of the diplomatic teeter-totter in the Middle East, experts say China is being encouraged to fill that void by MBS.
“MBS is clearly pushing this because he knows the rules-based order is not going to stand for Saudi Arabia being able to use their petro hostage-taking to allow him to be able to be acting illegally as he does. And you see him doing it through the United Arab Emirates, for example, allowing China to open up a port in the UAE,” Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Arizona), told The Media Line. Gallego, a US Marine Corps infantryman who fought in some of the Iraq War’s bloodiest battles, is running for the US Senate seat occupied by Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Arizona).
“I am very concerned about this,” Gallego said. “As a matter of fact, I am introducing something into the NDAA [National Defense Authorization Act] to study the Saudi Arabia-UAE-China connection.”
According to freshman Rep. Dr. Rich McCormick (R-Georgia), a physician who is also a US Marine Corps combat veteran, China’s rise in the region is partially a result of President Biden’s foreign policy.
“Joe Biden’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan [completed in 2021] has created a security vacuum, leaving some Middle Eastern nations considering China as a partner for economic and security development. This should concern us greatly,” McCormick told The Media Line.
McCormick, a helicopter pilot, was the poster boy for the US Marine Corps, appearing in their recruiting ads during the 1990s.
“Due to the Biden administration’s failed Middle East foreign policy, the CCP [Chinese Communist Party] has been able to broker deals between Iran and Saudi Arabia, as well as Syria’s reconciliation in the Gulf. As a result, Iran and Syria have become emboldened to confront the US militarily,” McCormick said.
However, Gallego disagreed that the issues stemmed from President Biden’s policies.
“This is a problem that has existed for multiple administrations and now for multiple decades, for far too long. Also, Wall Street has been extremely cozy with China, allowing them to build up the political-economic leverage that is putting us in the situation that we are in right now,” Gallego said.
“America needs to reassert its status as a valuable and reliable partner to developing countries in the Middle East and across the world, because if we don’t, China will.”
Rep. Rich McCormick
China increases its military presence, shows aggressiveness toward US forces
Not only is China ramping up its diplomatic role in the region, it is also increasing its military footprint in the Middle East and has shown aggressiveness towards the US militarily.
Last week, a Chinese warship named Luyang III (DDG-132) harassed the US Navy’s USS Chung-Hoon (DDG-93) in the Taiwan Strait. The USS Chung-Hoon is named after the first Asian-American flag officer, US Navy Rear Admiral Gordan Chung-Hoon, who was of Chinese ancestry.
A statement released by the US Indo-Pacific Command said the Chinese naval vessel “executed maneuvers in an unsafe manner in the vicinity of Chung-Hoon.” The Luyang came within 150 yards of the American ship.
It was the second incident of military provocation by the Chinese that week and the most recent in a string of events that include numerous interactions between Chinese and US aircraft. These military actions are dangerous games that could lead to devastating military consequences, but that has not deterred China, which appears to be ramping up its provocations.
While McCormick and Gallego disagreed on the root cause of China’s rise in the Middle East, both agreed that the US must tackle the issue.
“America needs to reassert its status as a valuable and reliable partner to developing countries in the Middle East and across the world, because if we don’t, China will,” McCormick said.
“I think the best answer for us is to act as a united front and actually start pushing back on China and its perceived allies out there,” Gallego added.
The US Defense Department’s 2023 fiscal year budget is $816.7 billion; the Chinese defense budget is $224.8 billion.
The 2022 defense budget for all countries across the Middle East and North Africa region was an estimated $75 billion.
The Chinese Embassy in Washington did not respond to The Media Line’s request for comment.