In the past few weeks, Hamas has allowed and encouraged hundreds of Palestinians to conduct violent riots along the Gaza border, recently on an almost daily basis.Over the last five days, there have been regular protests, and in at least one location on Tuesday, rioters appeared to cross a fence along the border.Palestinians threw explosives at the fence and Israeli forces responded by firing tear gas and live fire.After the standard closure over Rosh Hashanah, Erez crossing, which is used by Gazan workers with permits to enter and exit Israel, remained closed in response to the riots. The reopening of the crossing is subject to a situational assessment.The riots have also been linked by the organizers publicly to a number of issues, including alleged attacks by Israeli forces on Palestinian women, alleged violations of al-Aqsa Mosque and Jewish visits to the Temple Mount, and policies being promoted by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir against Palestinian prisoners.Earlier this month, one of the main groups that organizes the riots said they were prevented by Hamas’s border guards from reaching the fence area. The group had published photos of intensive preparations ahead of those planned riots, including the preparation of large explosive devices.Arabic-language media reports around the time indicated that the riots were prevented after threats from Israel were relayed to Hamas leaders by Qatari envoy Mohammed al-Emadi.So if Hamas was seemingly scared of escalating then, why are they comfortable escalating now, in the middle of the High Holy Days, one of the most sensitive periods of the year?
One of the leading possibilities proposed has been issues surrounding the Qatari grant that the Strip receives periodically. The grant provides a subsidy for the many families in need in Gaza, as well as the salaries of Hamas officials.In recent months, media have reported that Qatar has refused to transfer the funds it usually provides for the salaries of civil servants in Gaza. While the grant for needy families was disbursed during a recent visit by Emadi, the funds for civil servants were held up.KAN reported on Tuesday that Hamas received the full Qatari grant over Rosh Hashanah, but has continued to allow an escalation on the border regardless as it wants Qatar to raise the amount of money given to the Strip. The grant to Gaza includes Qatari-bought fuel, which Hamas then sells, with the money from the sale then going to the salaries of civil servants. As gas prices have risen, Hamas now receives less fuel and thus makes less of a profit from the sale of fuel to use for salaries.Hamas often escalates tensions gradually with Israel like it is now when it is seeking some form of economic gain, such as an increase in the Qatari grant or more permits for Palestinian workers to enter Israel.On the other hand, even after Israel responded to the riots by closing the Erez crossing – a move that places immense pressure on Hamas from laborers who are now unable to go to work – Hamas has continued to escalate the border riots.The renewal of the riots also comes as Hamas faces the “perfect storm” of tensions. Terrorist attacks are spiking in the West Bank, Palestinian prisoners are facing stricter policies imposed by Ben-Gvir, Jewish visits to the Temple Mount continue almost completely uninterrupted and a shofar was even blown on the Temple Mount during Rosh Hashanah, Palestinian media has placed a focus on recent alleged attacks by Israeli forces on Palestinian women, and Israel has reportedly issued direct threats to the factions to renew targeted assassinations against their leaders outside of the West Bank.Additionally, Iran, the patron of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, has been working to intensify its efforts against Israel.A number of attempts linked to Iran to smuggle powerful explosives from Jordan to the West Bank have been thwarted recently (implying that at least some have gotten through undetected).Hezbollah, another beneficiary of Iran, has also intensified its provocations on Israel’s northern front in recent months, although in the past month that front has fallen more silent.Hamas may be receiving a push from its patron to act more strongly against Israel, whether in an attempt to take advantage of the internal discord in Israel or to help distract from actions Iran is taking internally and in the region.
ALL OF these factors, however, were present already when Hamas prevented the border riots earlier this month. So what’s changed?
Why is Hamas escalating? Israeli threats not backed up with action
One factor that has changed is that while Israeli officials have made repeated verbal threats, they have so far failed to back these big statements up with action. After so many times of strong words remaining just words, the terrorist group may have gained the confidence to act out more directly.Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have repeatedly threatened action against the leaders of the terrorist factions and even Iran in response to the rising terrorism in the West Bank, but those threats have so far not been followed up with much action (at least not publicly).Hamas also knows as well as anyone that Israel does not want an escalation during the holidays, especially not on Yom Kippur. That belief is likely a central factor in their decision to escalate now as well. It is possible that as soon as the High Holy Days are over, assuming a larger conflict hasn’t been sparked, Hamas will back down. That may also be a factor leading the Israeli defense establishment to hold back.Even if Hamas is just taking advantage of the High Holy Days to temporarily escalate, the bottom line is that the deterrence achieved with Operation Guardian of the Walls and economic sanctions is starting to fade.After over a year and a half of Hamas preventing riots and balloon launches on the border and holding back from taking part in rounds of conflict between PIJ and Israel, the terrorist movement appears to now be comfortable enough to escalate, even during the High Holy Days.Hamas has also had about two years since Guardian of the Walls to build up its capabilities, again almost uninterrupted, except for rare strikes on a few of its facilities.With Yom Kippur quickly approaching and Hamas showing no signs of backing down, even with the closure of the Erez crossing, the Israeli defense establishment may soon need to act more forcefully to return deterrence on the southern front.A failure to deter Hamas from continuing to escalate opens the door to a larger conflict, even if both sides aren’t actually interested in one. A number of possible incidents largely outside of the control of both sides, such as large Palestinian casualties in the border riots or more direct attacks on soldiers, could drag the region into another round of conflict.Already, in the recent riots, multiple incidents of explosives and gunfire targeting Israeli forces directly have been reported. The longer the riots continue, the higher the risk that soldiers will be wounded by one of these assaults.With Hamas more and more willing to openly claim responsibility for attacks in the West Bank and more willing to at least allow, if not promote, an escalation on the Gaza border, it appears words are no longer enough. If the defense establishment wants to prevent a larger conflict or at least enter the next conflict on its own terms, it will need to start acting soon.