Turkey launched widespread airstrikes on Syria this week after a bombing in Ankara on October 1 injured two police officers. Ankara has blamed the Kurdistan Workers Party or PKK for the attack and has vowed to strike back.
However, the current airstrikes in Syria go far beyond fighting terrorism and are designed to strike at infrastructure and harm the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, the group that fights ISIS. Ankara claims the SDF are “terrorists” even though there is no evidence the group has been linked to any attacks against Turkey or other countries.
This is not the first time Ankara has lashed out after a terror attack in a widespread disproportionate campaign that appears aimed more at attacking US-backed forces, than actually defeating terrorists. Turkey, for instance, carries out a daily campaign against the PKK in northern Iraq, where Ankara has maintained numerous outposts for decades to fight the organization. However, the war in northern Iraq is very different than the one in Syria. In northern Iraq the PKK has bases in the mountains and Turkey establishes military outposts to carry out raids.
This can destabilize northern Iraq’s Kurdistan autonomous region. Ankara increasingly focuses also on strikes near Sulimaniyeh, a city that is aligned with the Kurdish political party PUK. As such there is a lot of mission creep in Turkey’s war effort. It began by fighting the PKK in Turkey, spread to Iraq, now targets other Kurdish parties, and increasingly is focused on fighting in Syria.
According to reports this week, Ankara has warned it will increase its attacks in eastern Syria to target infrastructure targets. This could include energy facilities and other sites. This is not the first time Turkey has done this. Back in 2016 Turkey decided that its main policy goal in Syria was to defeat Kurdish groups. This included targeting the People’s Protection Units (YPG), which Turkey claimed was linked to the PKK. Then this extended to fighting the US-backed SDF also. The US had supported the creation of the SDF in 2015 to fight ISIS.The SDF combines Kurdish and other groups. Turkey armed and supported Arab rebel groups to fight the Kurdish groups in Syria, a cynical attempt to distract the rebels from fighting the Assad regime, to move them to fight Kurds. This operation began in 2016 near Manbij and increased in 2018 when Turkey invaded Afrin, a Kurdish area in northwest Syria. Then Turkey invaded another area of Syria in 2019.
Shifting political priorities
Since 2020, when the US elections shifted some of Ankara’s priorities, Turkey has vowed to continue its operations in northern and eastern Syria until the SDF is removed. This would include attacking a huge swath of territory including Kurdish areas and cities such as Kobani, Derik, Qamishli, Hasakah and other areas. Ankara can’t carry out a huge operation like this without the blessing of Russia, Iran, the Syrian regime and the US.Turkey has tried to get Russia, Iran and Damascus to agree. However, what has happened is that instead of supporting a new Turkish operation, they have agreed to back Syrian Arab tribes near Deir Ezzor to fight the SDF. These tribes chafe under SDF rule east of the Euphrates. The US has forces in these areas. In recent months Turkish-backed Arab rebel groups have put out information backing the “tribes” and Iran, Damascus and Hezbollah have begun to align with this policy. Russia is also involved because Russia backs the Syrian regime.
Ankara knows it can’t launch major operations in Syria without a reason, a “cause of war” or casus belli. Therefore whenever it can blame the PKK for terror attacks in Turkey, Ankara launches massive airstrikes. It usually uses drones to carry out the strikes because drones are expendable and it doesn’t appear it has to coordinate all its drone activity with the US in eastern Syria.The skies over Syria are complex, with Russia flying warplanes, the US flying warplanes and drones and Turkey flying drones. The US and Russia “de-conflict” but that doesn’t mean there aren’t tensions. The US has sent F-22s to the region to deter Iran and Russia.Turkey appears to be able to carry out most drone strikes in Syria with impunity. But the US is warning about escalation now. The US likely knows that Ankara’s real policy is not about fighting terrorists, because the terrorists behind the Ankara bombing are not in Syria, so the real policy is using the terror attack to ratify a wider policy goal.
This week Turkey increased drone strikes in Syria and locals say one of the drones was shot down. The US is being very careful with the language it uses about what is happening in Syria. However, it is clear that the script has already been written in terms of what each side wants. The US wants to remain in eastern Syria and continue to fight ISIS. The US has switched to more helicopter raids in Syria to fight ISIS recently. The SDF has increases challenges now, not only from Turkey’s drone strikes, but also the tribal elements allegedly being armed by Iran and Hezbollah.
Eastern Syria is incredibly poor and isolated. It is blockaded by Turkey and the Syrian regime is non-plussed about the US presence. As such the people there, the civilians, have basically no access to the outside world. It is an abandoned place that is now used as a theatre of conflict by larger outside powers. Some might see parallels with the recent conflict in Nagorna-Karabakh, where another area with a minority population was blockaded and then suffered a conflict.
It is not clear if Ankara saw Azerbaijan’s success against the Armenians in Nagorna-Karabkah as an opportunity to begin operations in eastern Syria. The difference is that it is likely that not all the other countries involved, such as Iran, Russia, or the US would want a Turkish operation to happen. Each country has its agenda. This also matters to Israel because Israel doesn’t want more Iranian entrenchment in Syria.