Former prime minister Ehud Barak wrote to the Foreign Affairs magazine on Sunday, calling for early elections in Israel to replace Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Barak began his argument by stating that the past four months of war have highlighted two different portrayals of Israel:
"On the one hand, the war has showcased the tactical prowess of the IDF [...] and promoted a sense of solidarity among Israeli citizens [...] On the other hand, the war has revealed the staggering strategic incompetence of the Israeli government and an astonishing leadership vacuum at the top."
Ehud Barak, Foreign Affairs Magazine
He then compared David Ben-Gurion (Israel's first prime minister) and Netanyahu, calling the current Prime Minister "narcissistic, manipulative, [and] shortsighted." Barak then says that while it might seem like Netanyahu has accepted the two-state solution proposals suggested by the US and most recently by Biden's administration. however, on the four occasions in which the solution was raised, Netanyahu has "always torpedoed it," according to Barak.
The risks Netanyahu faces, according to Ehud Barak
He then explained that with the latest suggestion from Biden's administration, Netanyahu has to choose between two options: To either lose the support of his far-right figures (which would lead to early elections) or reject Biden's approach and drag "Israel deeper into the mud in Gaza," which could spark additional fronts from the IDF to handle, and damage relations with the US, as well as risk old, and new relations Israel has with several Muslim countries.
Barak suggested that Biden's advisors are suspicious of Netanyahu and fear that he might tell Biden that he is ready to discuss the US proposal, and at the same time, he will "whisper to his far-right allies: 'Don’t leave. I fooled Obama, I fooled Trump, and I will fool Biden, too—and we will survive. Trust me!'."
Getting out of Gaza
Barak continued with the bold statement that Israel's only way to navigate out of these complicated waters is through general elections no later than June 2024.
"There is only one way to prevent Netanyahu from leading Israel into a long regional war and probably deceiving both the administration and the Israeli public: general elections."
Ehud Barak, Foreign Affairs magazine
Barak then added that the PM's main opposition, Yair Lapid, Benny Gantz, and Gadi Eisenkot, should run together on a promised condition to accept Biden's offer with some alterations. Barak believes that Israel has to insist on a few conditions that are mainly related to security before agreeing to Biden's plans.
Netanyahu's failures, according to former PM Ehud Barak
It is without a doubt important to have coherent plans and defined objectives so that plans are executed well. Yet, according to Barak, there was a distinct lack of any strategic assessment during the early days of the war. Similarly, Eisenkot (former chief of staff of the IDF) points this out in a letter to the war cabinet, saying that "no determinative decisions have effectively been made in three months [...] without meaningful moves to achieve the strategic objectives."
Barak continued and says that the failures are evident in two important subjects; (1)releasing the hostages, and (2) controlling the border between Egypt and Gaza. He points out that the IDF chief of staff and members of the war cabinet have asked for these discussions. However, Netanyahu repeatedly refused in order "to preserve his fragile governing coalition with the fanatical far right."
Barak's input on the hostages' situation
Barak added that currently it is believed that only about half of the remaining 136 hostages are still alive, and that "freeing them is a moral duty" that "is more urgent" than eliminating Hamas. Barak then pointed out the absurdity of calling for the death of Hamas leaders, and at the same time attempting to make a deal.
"I do no doubt that Netanyahu wants to see the hostages released"
Ehud Barak, Foreign Affairs magazine
Barak claimed that Netanyahu is held at a standstill on this matter due to "his compulsive need to look like a strong leader." Barak also points out that in the past 12 years, PM Netanyahu refused six plans brought by the Shin Bet to eliminate Hamas leadership. Barak finished discussing the hostages by arguing that Netanyahu's current behavior puts the remaining hostages in growing peril.
The possibility of co-existence
According to Barak, Biden's 'the day after' proposal most probably has an expiration date, considering the nearing elections in the US. He says that there is a possibility that this two-state initiative might eventually lead Iran to urge its proxies to "step up their attacks on Israel" in an attempt to halt any progress toward peace in the Middle East.
According to his article on Foreign Affairs, Barak believes that the currently proposed two-state solution "might have been happily embraced" during Yair Lapid's or Naftali Bennet's administration. However, it would be much harder today to convince the Israeli public, which is still angry, humiliated, and hurt by the horrors of Oct. 7. However, Barak also believes that in time, Israel will move on, and he gives Egypt and Jordan as examples of Arab Muslim countries that Israel has better relations with for over 30 years now.
PM Netanyahu's solution for Gaza's day after
Last week, PM Netanyahu announced his plan for what will happen after the end of the war in Gaza. According to Barak, Netanyahu plans on "empowering several influential Gazan families, some of which are involved in organized crime." He also points out that while the PM's goal to deradicalize the Gazan is fine, it is also something that would take decades. Netanyahu also calls for the replacement of UNRWA, to which the former PM agrees as it "has been compromised by Hamas terrorists." Barak was quick to point out though that Netanyahu does not specify what would replace UNRWA.
Barak stated that the issue with PM Netanyahu's proposals is that there is no explanation as to who will rule Gaza. Barak said that it cannot be Hamas, nor can they remain to threaten Israel, Israel cannot control Gaza long term, and that the Gazan people are "there to stay." He adds that this new ruling entity has to be "a revitalized Palestinian Authority that would regularly take responsibility for the civil management of Gaza."
Netanyahu vs Meir
Barak said that it seems clear what PM Netanyahu doesn't want, "what remains unclear is what he wants," and that while the IDF had done its job as best as it could, its main objectives are not close to being fulfilled.
Former PM Barak also says that according to recent national polls in Israel, the vast majority believes that Netanyahu is responsible for the failures that allowed the October 7 attacks to take place and that around 75% of the voters want him to resign.
Israel has one former PM who experienced a similar surprise attack during their administration: Golda Meir (1969-1974.) Meir stepped down in 1973, during the fight with the Syrian forces in the Golan Heights, when she was similarly accused of failing to foresee a surprise attack on Israel's citizens. However, according to Barak, "Netanyahu is focused on his political survival." Barak believes that the current PM would not do as his mentioned predecessor and step down. With public feelings towards PM Netanyahu running hot, Barak called to "Eisenkot, Gantz, and Lapid [to] lead this effort and demand general elections [...] before it is too late."