One of the reasons why the US is working so hard to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza is to prevent the exchange of fire between Israel and Hezbollah from expanding into a full-scale war.
Arman Mahmoudian, a researcher of Russia and the Middle East at the University of South Florida and the "Global National Security Institute" (GNSI) explained that at the beginning in 1982, Hezbollah's main mission was in southern Lebanon, populated mostly by Shiites, against the IDF and the Free Lebanese Army.
However, over time, Hezbollah became the strongest player in Lebanon in particular, and in the region in general.
Hezbollah grew as a result of the United States' war on terror, specifically the 2003 invasion and occupation of Iraq.
The American presence in Iraq, strategically located between Iran and Syria, increased the sense of vulnerability of both countries, leading them to increase their ability to attack the US.
Syria has allowed Ba'athists and former al-Qaeda operatives to carry out operations against the US from its territory, while Iran has increased its network of regional proxies with Hezbollah at the forefront.
He further explained that immediately after the US invasion of Iraq, Hezbollah created a new force known as Unit 3800 to oversee operations against the US military.
A small number of elite forces trained Iraqi fighters to carry out kidnappings and tactical operations. They also learned to use sophisticated improvised explosive devices (IEDs), incorporating lessons learned from operations in southern Lebanon.
Hezbollah provided funds and weapons to these fighters. He also quickly expanded ties with Iraqi militias, including the Badr Brigade, Saraya Al-Khorsani, and al-Mahdi.
In addition to military aid, Hezbollah supported Iraqi Shiite militias and political parties through a large media presence.
The second phase of Hezbollah's expansion came during the Arab Spring, starting at the end of 2010. The chaos and instability allowed Hezbollah not only to increase its presence in Iraq and Syria but also to expand into Yemen and Bahrain.
As the civil war raged in Syria, Hezbollah deployed thousands of fighters to support Bashar al-Assad. Hezbollah fighters played a decisive role in major battles, such as the Battle of Qusayr in 2013, which recaptured territory from rebel forces.
Hezbollah also provided training and strategic advice to Syrian government forces, leveraging expertise in urban warfare and guerrilla tactics. According to regional sources, at least until 2021, Hezbollah was operating in 116 sites, from the deep south of Syria in Daraa to the north in Aleppo.
In Yemen, Hezbollah smuggled dismantled weapons and trained Houthi fighters in guerrilla warfare, logistics, and the use of advanced weapons, including missile technology. Hezbollah's Radwan force also directed attacks on Saudis.
The leadership of Hezbollah, including Hassan Nasrallah, participated in propaganda campaigns to strengthen the cause of the Houthis and against the Saudi narratives.
In Bahrain, Hezbollah's activities were more covert and focused on supporting Shiite opposition groups. According to sources, Hezbollah collaborated with Iran to establish a Shiite militia known as the al-Ashtar Brigades, which, since its establishment in 2013, has carried out more than 20 attacks against the security forces and police of Bahrain.
In Iraq, Hezbollah's role expanded significantly even during the Arab Spring. In 2014, Hezbollah established a command center to oversee and plan all operations in Iraq. Hezbollah also expedited the supply of weapons and provided extensive training and support to Iraqi Shiite militias, including Asaib Ahl al-Haq, Hezbollah Brigades, and the Badr Brigade. Hezbollah operatives participated in combat operations alongside Iraqi militias against ISIS.
Three major game-changers
According to Mahmoudian, the 21st century was another transformative period for Hezbollah marked by three major events: the killing of the head of the Quds Force Qassem Soleimani, the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in 2022, and October 7. Soleimani's death had profound consequences for Hezbollah's operations in Iraq. Soleimani was a key figure coordinating Iran's courier network. Fearing to lose its grip on Iraq after his death, Iran tasked Hezbollah with filling this gap.
Hezbollah has increased its training of Iraqi militias, focusing on advanced military tactics, urban warfare, and the use of sophisticated weapons. Hezbollah has also taken on the role of providing strategic guidance for operations against US and coalition forces, including planning and executing attacks on bases and military convoys. At the same time, Hezbollah increased its influence on pro-Iranian factions in the Iraqi government, which called for the expulsion of the 2,500 remaining US troops in the country.
The war in Ukraine also gave Hezbollah a boost by undermining Russia's role in Syria. Moscow withdrew troops from Syria, leaving a power vacuum that was filled by both the IRGC and Hezbollah. This not only gave Hezbollah an opportunity to expand its presence but also allowed the militia to present itself as a valuable player capable of protecting Russian interests.
While the chaos abroad allowed Hezbollah to expand its regional influence, the internal chaos serves the same purpose. Over 80% of Lebanese live in poverty due to the financial turmoil in the country and the devaluation of the Lebanese pound. These difficult circumstances helped Hezbollah.
Its financial backbone, the Al-Qard Al-Hasan Association (AQAH), offered personal loans to Lebanon in exchange for gold and foreign currency, making Hezbollah the holder of the country's largest gold reserves.
In addition, Hezbollah, through its global financial network, including gold mines in Venezuela, transferred foreign currency and gold to Lebanon. Given the weak value of the Lebanese currency, this gave Hezbollah enormous purchasing power and allowed the militia to expand its economic presence by purchasing many construction and solar energy projects.
The funds gathered by Hezbollah may make it wary of escalating the current exchange of fire with Israel. Over the past four decades, Hezbollah has demonstrated a remarkable ability to exploit regional instability and conflict.
Whether during the US war on terror, the Arab Spring, or the tumultuous events of 2020, each round provided Hezbollah with new opportunities to expand its range of activity.