Iran and Central Asia expert Masoud Al-Faq and Director of the Arab Center for Iranian Studies Dr. Mohammed Saleh Sedghian spoke about the complexity of predicting the scope and details of an Iranian attack on Israel in an interview with the Saudi news channel Al Hadath on Monday.
"We are essentially at the beginning of the road," Al-Faq said. "Iran wants to reassess its security and intelligence measures to [rebuild] the deterrence that disappeared as a result of [the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh].
"The reason for this is that the assassination exposed [Israel's] capability to reach anyone, despite the maximum security measures Iran had taken to protect its guests during the inauguration of the new president," he continued.
"It seems that Iran has also begun a psychological and propaganda war against Israel to confuse the other side and deprive it of the ability to predict the timing of the missile launches, which will effectively be the backbone of any Iranian attack," he noted.
Sedghian added, "It seems to me that the answer to this question is currently the million-dollar question. What will the Iranian response look like, and when? To what extent and at what level? It is not easy to get answers to these questions from Iranian sources. However, the Iranians speak emphatically about a strong and surprising response that will renew Iranian sovereignty, which was violated by Israel when it [assassinated] their guest, Haniyeh."
A multi-front attack
"The Supreme Leader of Iran, following the attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, asked the Revolutionary Guards to warn the enemy," he continued. "Now he has asked the Revolutionary Guards to punish the enemy. There is a big difference between warning and punishing. Now, he has asked them to punish [Israel].
"The Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Mohammad Bagheri, said that the Iranian response would be powerful enough to make Israel regret [its actions]. Other senior officials, whether from the Revolutionary Guards or politicians, speak in this tone as well," he added.
"What will it be like when, at what level? The information indicates that the Iranian response will be a complex one, meaning that the response will be simultaneous, perhaps from Iran because its sovereignty was violated, from Lebanon because it was attacked at its core – Hezbollah was attacked at its home base in Dahiya – and from Yemen where the Hodeidah port was attacked, which concerns the Houthi movement," Sedghian added.
"It seems to me that the response will be complex, surprising, and also powerful, but how and when, only Allah and those in the know, of whom I am not one, know," he concluded.