Lebanon would struggle to meet even a fraction of its aid needs if full-scale war erupts between Israel and Hezbollah, a senior official said, as it seeks increased donor support amid persistent border clashes.
Nasser Yassin, the minister overseeing contingency planning for a wider conflict, told Reuters Lebanon would need $100 million monthly for food, shelter, healthcare and other needs in a worst-case scenario.
"A small fraction, even 10 to 15 percent of that, would be huge for the government. We will need donors to step up," Yassin said.
International aid is already falling short. Lebanon has received only a third of the $74 million sought over the course of the 10-month conflict between Iran-backed Hezbollah and Israel.
"Humanitarian funding in many places has been reduced to a minimal level of just keeping heads above water. Some organizations are even slashing funding for critical life-saving matters," Yassin added.
Lebanon's state, hollowed out by a five-year economic crisis left to fester by ruling elites, struggled to provide basic services even before the current conflict began alongside the Gaza war.
Nearly 100,000 Lebanese, mainly from the south, have been displaced, as well as more than 60,000 Israelis, according to official figures.
While Israel houses its displaced in government-funded accommodation, Lebanon relies on ill-equipped public schools or informal arrangements such as staying with family or friends.
Possible next steps in conflict
An Aug. 7 government document seen by Reuters outlines two scenarios other than the conflict remaining at its current levels.
A "controlled conflict" displacing 250,000 people, requiring $50 million in monthly funding for three months.
An "uncontrolled conflict" displacing 1 million or more, needing $100 million monthly for three months.
The document emphasizes the urgent need for additional resources, noting current stocks and shelter capacity are "far from adequate".
"Additional resources are urgently needed to respond to ongoing needs and to prepare and respond to increasing needs in event of escalation," it says.
Yassin said Lebanon's food supply would last four to five months under an Israeli blockade similar to the 2006 war.
However, diesel supplies would last only about five weeks - a concern given the country's reliance on generators to power everything from hospitals and bakeries to the internet due to limited availability of state electricity.