Eleven days into August, Israel remains unfazed by Iran’s promised retaliation for the assassination of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31. The disconnect between Iran’s threats and their execution has left Israelis in a state of cautious indifference. While some have prepared for potential repercussions, many others have adopted a surprisingly calm and pragmatic stance.
So, why should we disrupt our lives now? Israelis will continue living as they always have, refusing to be paralyzed by threats that are taking their time to materialize.
Some may state that it is this nonchalant attitude that led to the October 7 massacre and the war with Hamas in the first place. But Israelis are well-equipped and experienced enough to know how to manage the day-to-day and get on with their lives.
They cannot be expected to sit and wait hunched over in a bomb shelter while Iran makes up its mind.
Despite no official proof of Israel’s involvement, the Iranians have pinpointed Israel as the perpetrator of Haniyeh’s assassination and threatened a heavy response – through their own armed forces and Iranian proxies Hezbollah and Houthis.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has said Israel should expect a harsh response and many Iranian military and civil officials have been weighing in.
What is happening behind the scenes is obviously playing a part, too. Constant negotiations, discussions, and even a plea from Iran’s new president all indicate a desire from most major players to avoid an escalation. But the Ayatollah is adamant on revenge.
The rhetoric has been wild for a week now. So has been the waiting. First, it was estimated that an attack would take place last Sunday – then Monday. After that, it was presumed that Iran’s retaliation would occur on Thursday night, then Friday night. Now it is allegedly scheduled for Tisha B’Av, according to Western intelligence reports.
Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani, a member of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security Commission, stated that Iran’s aerial operations against Israel could last three to four days, according to a recent report by Iran International. Speaking to Iran Watch, Ardestani emphasized that Tehran is prepared for the consequences of such an attack and would respond decisively, possibly through a surprise operation.
'Keeping Israel in limbo is part of the revenge operation'
He also told Iran Watch that prolonging the response or making Israel wait for one was in Iran’s favor as Israel “feels every night that it is in limbo, and keeping Israel in limbo is part of the revenge operation.”
“Adopting a policy of patience and waiting is part of the revenge process of the Islamic Republic,” Ardestani said.
While no one likes waiting for an attack, Israelis have recent experience of the Iranians’ behavior due to April’s offense, when some 300 missiles and rockets were fired at Israel in response to an air strike on the Iranian consulate grounds in Damascus, leading to the deaths of senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officers.
Although the current threat promises to be a lot harsher and without a doubt, nobody is taking Iran’s threats lightly, that feeling of limbo that Ardestani referenced has not really come to pass, at least not in Jerusalem.
Prof. David Menashri, an expert on Iran at Tel Aviv University, recently told The Media Line, “Israel is not that good at the game of patience like Iran, so it will be interesting to see if it will act first. Iran is clearly winning the psychological warfare at the moment.”
Perhaps this is truly the case, but again, it does not feel that way on the ground. Supermarkets in Israel’s capital are showing no signs of panic-buying as has been seen in the past. Restaurants and bars are operating on a normal basis, although the disruption to flights to Israel, the three weeks of mourning leading up to Tisha B’Av, and the ongoing conflict with Hamas have obviously contributed to less custom than perhaps a normal summer.
Indeed, a visit to a local park on Shabbat did not in any way indicate that Israelis are in a state of limbo in fear of an imminent Iranian attack.
Speaking to Saturday ramblers, pushing their kids along in strollers, the feeling was one of typical Israeli resilience. We have been here before. Some have experienced times like these more than others. But there was no fear in anybody’s eyes; no stress (beyond what people have experienced for the past 10 months.) It was business as usual.
The Iranians may think that they are winning their psychological warfare by keeping Israelis in suspense and terror, awaiting their response. But no one’s told the Israelis that.
Revenge may be a dish best served cold, but if the Iranians wait any longer, the dish may have already burned in the oven.