Hezbollah has announced a new leader. Naim Qassem, who was the group’s deputy secretary-general, was appointed after Israel eliminated Hassan Nasrallah and his successor, Hashem Safieddine.Qassem is well known within Hezbollah. He has also spoken out in the past about the group’s attacks on Israel. In November 2023, he told NBC News that “Hezbollah participates for the sake of lowering the pressure on Gaza.”Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian congratulated Qassem in a statement published on October 29.“Undoubtedly, in this sensitive historical situation, the defense of Lebanon’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, as well as the lofty ideals of the resistance front and the oppressed Palestinian nation, are of historical importance. I am confident that the presence of a bright figure with clear records like your excellency at the head of the Hezbollah group will strengthen the will in the field of resistance and also the continuation of the bright path of the high-ranking martyrs of this front,” Pezeshkian wrote.The statement shows that Iran is confident that Qassem will survive for more than a few weeks. Iran’s Speaker of Parliament Baqer Qalibaf, also sent a message to Qassem.
Qalibaf recently visited Lebanon, piloting the plane himself when he flew into the Mediterranean country. “Your Excellency is a smart choice, thank God. You have the face of a servant and a fighter with experience, commitment to the principles and goals of the Lebanese Resistance Front and Hezbollah. I congratulate the militant and revolutionary group,” Qalibaf wrote.Hezbollah’s Shura Council announced on Tuesday that it had elected Naim Qassem. Other congratulatory notes have poured in. The commander-in-chief of Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, Major General Hossein Salami, said, “This blessed election guarantees the unstoppable and glorious path of Islamic resistance in Lebanon and the strong determination of the proud fighters of Hezbollah to save the oppressed Palestinian nation from the yoke of the Zionist invaders and their criminal supporters.” He expressed hope for Qassem’s longevity, adding that he was walking a “martyr’s” path, indicating that Iran knows his days may be numbered. Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant put out a post on social media on October 29 threatening the new Hezbollah leader.Another congratulatory message for the new Hezbollah leader came from the Iran-Lebanon Parliamentary Friendship Group, which praised Hezbollah’s war against Israel. “The group expressed hope that Hezbollah will continue its resistance and fight for the destruction of Israel, stronger than before,” Iran’s state media IRNA noted.The Alma Research and Education Center published an article describing Qassem’s background, noting that he was born in 1953. According to the article, “his family originated from Kafr Fila in the Tufah district of southern Lebanon. He is married and has six children.” Qassem has a degree in chemistry and was a teacher prior to joining the Lebanese Shi’ite Amal movement in 1974; he joined Hezbollah in 1982.“Qassem was elected three times to Hezbollah’s Shura Council. During the 1980s he was responsible for Hezbollah educational activities and scouts in Beirut [and served as] deputy head of the executive council and head of the executive council,” the Alma report notes. “Qassem continued in his position continuously, as Nasrallah’s deputy from 1992 until he was elected Hezbollah’s current secretary general, after Nasrallah’s elimination.”“We estimate that, in light of the circumstances of the results of the war and the character and image of Naim Kasem, the Iranians will be far more involved in all spheres about what is occurring in Hezbollah than during Nasrallah’s lifetime,” the report concludes.
Iran's considerations
Iran is investing in Qassem and the future of Hezbollah. It has seen Hezbollah suffer blows at the opening of Israel’s increasing operations in Lebanon in September and October. However, Iran likely believes Israel’s campaign will shift from high intensity to low intensity, as it did in Gaza. For instance, Israeli airstrikes in Beirut have been reduced in recent weeks. Israel didn’t follow up its strikes on the Hezbollah financial institutions of Qard al-Hasan.Hezbollah knows Israel is good at planning complex precision strikes. It also knows from the experience of Gaza that Israel is not that good at the long strategic conflict. Israel is good at tactical operations, where it wins small-pitched battles. But when it comes to a war of attrition, Israel has difficulty achieving its end goals. Iran also likely assesses that Israel doesn’t want to get to the Litani River and is willing to settle for clearing villages near the border.After Qassem was appointed, Hezbollah took responsibility for numerous attacks on October 29-30. The group said they fired rockets and borders and targeted a number of Israeli “bases.” Hezbollah also took credit for an attack on Tarshiha, where a civilian was killed.“The Islamic resistance of Lebanon also fired a significant number of missiles and drones at the locations of the occupying forces in the towns of Kafr Giladi, Dalton, Al-Manara, and Zarei,” Iran’s state media said. The group also targeted the area of Naqoura, where it actually struck a UNIFIL site. Hezbollah claimed it was aiming at an Israeli “naval base.”