President-elect Donald Trump’s comeback victory Tuesday weakens diplomatic efforts to end Israel’s multifront wars in the short term and calls into question US long-term support for Israel’s military campaigns against Iran and its proxies.
It’s the equivalent of a diplomatic bombshell, whose chilling effects will be felt almost immediately, and which already seems to freeze such ceasefire efforts.
Trump’s policies on all issues relating to Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran will be diametrically different than his predecessor US President Joe Biden and he will chart a new course.
That knowledge alone creates chaos in a war, in which the US had taken the diplomatic lead in ceasefire initiatives and backed Israel on the diplomatic stage. It has also headed a defensive military coalition that protects Israel from Iranian missile attacks and has supported Israel with military weaponry and supplies.
The Biden administration’s role this week is already not what it was last week. The question now is what can happen in the next three months and what would happen after January 20.
Trump's previous tenure in office
During that tenure in office, Trump moved the US embassy to Jerusalem and recognized it as Israel’s capital. He supported the legality of West Bank settlements and the possibility of Israeli sovereignty over 30% of that territory.Trump exited the Iran deal – which Israel opposed – halted US payments to UNRWA, and withdrew from the UN Human Rights Council.Most significantly, he crafted the Abraham Accords, a rubric under which Israel has normalized and can normalize ties with its Arab neighbors.Trump during his first term, however, was still beholden to US voters, particularly the evangelicals who support Israel; he is not the same as a second-term president who doesn’t need to worry about reelection.It is unclear what his record would be in this upcoming second term.
Trump's second term
Trump was also good for Israel in peace time because he is most capable when wielding soft power. He returns to the White House in a time of major wars, including in the Middle East, that could herald a potential Third World War.Even before his win in Tuesday’s election, he had promised to make peace in both the Middle East and Ukraine.IN URGING his supporters to head to the polls, he wrote on X/Twitter, that Harris “and her warmonger Cabinet will invade the Middle East, get millions of Muslims killed, and start World War III. VOTE TRUMP, AND BRING BACK PEACE!”He continued with that theme in his victory speech early Wednesday morning, stating, “We want a strong and powerful military, and ideally we don’t have to use it.“You know, we had no wars for years. We had no wars except when we defeated ISIS. We defeated ISIS in record time. But we had no wars. They said he would start a war. I’m not going to start a war, I’m going to stop wars.”His words open the question as to whether Trump will be good for Israel in wartime, particularly given his reluctance to engage militarily.Some think his entry into the geopolitics of Israel’s multifront war, would bring it to an end.
He is expected to pressure Israel to wrap up the Israel-Hamas War and with Hezbollah, while at the same time supporting ceasefire goals that are more likely to favor Israel.This comes precisely at a time when Israel had achieved many of its military goals and is fighting in the absence of ceasefire deals that provide adequate security.Netanyahu and Trump are more likely to be aligned on issues relating to the Day After the war with Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Had Vice President Kamala Harris won, she would have insisted on the link between a Day After plan and a two-state resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. She would also have wanted to see the Palestinian Authority return to Gaza, something that Trump would likely oppose.A Trump White House will also cut tension with Israel over issues critical to Biden over the United Nations Relief and Works Agency, humanitarian issues in Gaza, and Netanyahu’s judicial reform plans.THE BIDEN administration now lacks teeth with which to push Israel into improving the humanitarian situation in Gaza by threatening it with an arms embargo.It’s also presumed that Trump would support Israeli military action against Iran including the bombing of its nuclear faculties. The Iranians themselves have shown that they fear Trump, so it remains possible that his return to the White House could bring a tempering influence on Tehran.Trump would have added legislative support for pro-Israel measures, given that Republicans have control of the Senate and are close to House control.
Trump, however, enters the White House on January 20, after a critical three-month lame-duck period headed by Biden.
The next three months of Biden
The Biden administration now has to negotiate ceasefire deals with opponents who know they can wait out his clock and would want to come to the table soon if they believe he is offering them better terms that may worsen once Trump sits in the Oval Office again.Any deal Biden makes that includes US guarantees of any kind would now be suspect because Trump has a history of pulling out of deals he does not like.Israel would be among those who might prefer to wait for a Trump presidency to make the deal.The frozen hostage deal in particular, could take a hit during those months, particularly given Netanyahu’s insistence that he won’t meet Hamas’s demand that any such agreement must allow for a permanent ceasefire and a full IDF withdrawal.Political support for favoring military goals over a hostage deal was strengthened on Tuesday night when Netanyahu fired Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, replacing him with Foreign Minister Israel Katz.Gallant had been among those voices who believed that Israel should end the war if it meant getting a deal to free the hostages.The Trump win, however, could push Hamas to prefer a deal under Biden, believing the terms would be better given Trump’s pro-Israeli stances and his strong ties to Qatar.Absent that, Biden will have few pressure levers by which to push forward a deal, particularly with both sides entrenched in their positions.It could, however, have a positive impact on Israel’s direct conflict with Iran, which has now seen two rounds of direct attacks and counterattacks, with Israel bracing for an even harsher Iranian strike.Biden now has more leeway – should he choose to act on it – to take military action against Iran, particularly by striking its nuclear sites. It has already subtly threatened Iran with such a step, by moving B-52 bombers into the region.
A third Iranian strike could push the United States from a defensive to an offensive military stance with respect to the Islamic Republic.Having failed to diplomatically halt a nuclear Iran, Biden could potentially do so militarily, shifting the geopolitics of the Middle East, even before Trump arrives in Washington to set it on a new course.