The recent military actions carried out by the IDF in Lebanon have created a complex and challenging reality in the country, impacting its society, politics, and security.
At the center of this situation is the Shiite community, Hezbollah's main base of support, which now finds itself under pressure from both internal and external sources. In an in-depth interview with Professor Amatzia Baram, a Middle East expert, a vivid picture emerges of the multifaceted impacts of Israeli pressure and how it is destabilizing Hezbollah.
"The Shiites in Lebanon are under pressure they have never experienced before," said Prof. Baram. "This pressure is being exerted on several levels: social, political, and security. For the first time, we are seeing significant cracks in Hezbollah's support base, which has been the organization's backbone."
Currently, Lebanon hosts about 1.25 million refugees, mostly Shiites, who have fled their homes due to the fighting in southern Lebanon, the Beqaa Valley, and the Dahiya district in Beirut. "Shiite refugees are seeking shelter in other parts of Lebanon," explained Prof. Baram. "Some have even crossed into Syria, but most remain in Lebanon, moving to areas where Druze, Sunnis, and Christians are the majority, where they are not welcomed. The local residents view the Shiites and Hezbollah as the main culprits behind this war and the dire state of the country."
Beyond social tension, refugees face severe housing difficulties. Rental prices in major cities, particularly in Beirut, have skyrocketed, sometimes doubling or tripling, as landlords take advantage of high demand. "Even if the Shiites manage to find a place to live, they pay high prices and often have to endure poor living conditions," Prof. Baram explained. "The close physical proximity between different sects in the country creates friction. The Druze, Sunnis, and Christians blame the Shiites for dragging Lebanon into war, damaging the economy, and ruining any chance of stability. They believe that Hezbollah is fighting for Gaza, not for Lebanon."
The social distress is also seeping into Hezbollah's ranks. Families of the organization's operatives have had to flee their homes and seek refuge, putting immense pressure on the terrorists themselves: "Hezbollah terrorists know their families have nowhere to rest their heads," said Prof. Baram. "This unprecedented situation is causing the fighters themselves to pressure their commanders to stop the fighting so their families can return home in southern Lebanon."
Mounting internal strife
Meanwhile, the pressure is mounting due to an increase in Israeli attacks on targets in southern Lebanon and Beirut. "Recently, we have seen a rise in residents fleeing from the Dahiya area of Beirut and the Beqaa Valley (Baalbek). The continued Israeli military pressure will further damage Hezbollah's morale and its ability to maintain its personnel."
The social and economic crisis is also translating into significant political shifts. For the first time, the Free Patriotic Movement, a key partner in Hezbollah's coalition, announced its withdrawal. "This was a turning point," said Prof. Baram. "The Free Patriotic Movement, a Christian Maronite party led by Gebran Bassil, had supported Hezbollah for many years. Four days ago, Bassil publicly stated: 'Hezbollah can no longer claim it is defending Lebanon. Opening a front because of Gaza is not done to defend Lebanon.' Out of the 128 members of the Lebanese Parliament, 17 party members announced they would no longer support Hezbollah's policies or related votes."
The pressure on Hezbollah is not limited to the social and political arenas; its diplomatic positions are also shifting, reflecting the depth of the crisis. The organization's Deputy Secretary General, Naim Qassem, has shown a changing stance in his recent speeches, indicating internal discord within Hezbollah: "In his first speech, he completely avoided linking the ceasefire in Lebanon to the one in Gaza. However, in his second speech, he echoed Nasrallah's position, tying a ceasefire in Lebanon to a ceasefire in Gaza. Most recently, he shifted again, supporting a ceasefire in Lebanon independent of the situation in Gaza." Prof. Baram explained, "This is the first time we see Hezbollah leaning towards separating the fronts. Nasrallah, who championed the unity of the fronts, would be turning in his grave—his policy has been broken."
Simultaneously, the political collapse has increased sectarian tension in Lebanon. The Druze, who had previously been relatively tolerant of Hezbollah, are now showing growing opposition to the organization. "There is a clear rise in Druze resistance on Lebanese media channels," Prof. Baram said.
Among the Christian community, the opposition is becoming more open and intense. "There have always been Christians who opposed Hezbollah, but today, even Christian parties that once supported it, like the Free Patriotic Movement, are turning their backs on it," explained the expert.
"The pressure on Hezbollah is multifaceted and precise. Israel has managed to destabilize the organization's social support base, damage the morale of its operatives, and create significant rifts in the political arena," Prof. Baram concluded.