The IDF and Hezbollah traded threats on Tuesday over whether the military must complete its withdrawal from southern Lebanon on the 60th day exactly from the November 27 ceasefire, or whether there is wiggle room depending on conditions and violations on the ground.
Israeli military and government officials started making noises last week about the 60-day number not being “holy” and that if either the Lebanese military was moving slower than expected in exerting control over southern Lebanon or if Hezbollah carried out too many ceasefire violations, that the withdrawal could be drawn out past the deadline for days, weeks, and possibly even months.
Hezbollah is committed to its 60-day ceasefire with Israel but “day 61 will be different,” Political Council Deputy Chief Mahmoud Komati told Lebanon’s Al Manar TV late Monday, adding that Hezbollah would return to action against the IDF if Israel does not withdraw from southern Lebanon, while not giving further details.
In the interview, the former minister of state for parliamentary affairs said Hezbollah will not allow any local or foreign party to interfere with its weapons rebuilding program.
The stockpile of rockets, missiles, and drones is still there, Komati said, stating it was Hezbollah’s firing at Tel Aviv that brought Israel to the negotiating table.
The official also warned that certain political parties in Lebanon were aiding and abetting Israel to the detriment of the country and called on the Lebanese to desist from doing so.
“Some of them provided the enemy with data about certain institutions, like Al-Qard Al-Hasan Association,” Komati said. “Is this the proper way to build the nation?”
Komati said Hezbollah backs the selection of a new president in Lebanon, noting the shift in stance of those who once insisted on convening parliament but are now advocating for a delay in the voting session.
The Hezbollah representative further said the party still seeks respectful relations with Arab nations, aiming to avoid any political provocations.
Beyond 60 days?
Confronted with the possibility of Hezbollah returning to firing hundreds of rockets every day onto Israel’s home front, Israeli sources noted that their statements that the 60th day is not holy as a deadline for a complete withdrawal from southern Lebanon did not mean that sticking to the 60 day deadline was impossible.
No Israeli source has yet said definitively that the IDF will ignore the 60-day deadline, simply that conditions on the ground so far are moving slower than expected – which could have implications for a slower IDF withdrawal.
Sources said that Israeli statements merely reflected the fact that when Lebanon’s army does not take over an area from the IDF or when Hezbollah tries to penetrate southern Lebanon, the danger to Israeli forces and citizens increases.
Once this danger increases, it logically makes less sense for IDF forces to complete the withdrawal, said sources.
Another alternative, sources noted, was that the IDF could withdraw from nearly all of southern Lebanon, but hold onto a very minimal security zone until It felt that the Lebanese army and Hezbollah were both honoring their obligations under the ceasefire.
Such a minimalist position would likely require a public vote by the security cabinet, but it would make it harder for Hezbollah to justify a sudden major escalation.
In parallel, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot and Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu on Monday met with Lebanese military chief Joseph Aoun, and the two senior officials also met with UNIFIL troops on Tuesday near the Israel-Lebanon border.
Sources told the Post that while progress has been made by the various sides to the ceasefire, its implementation remains incomplete.
To date, there has been criticism of both Israel and Hezbollah regarding ceasefire violations, though Israel has refrained from targeting senior Hezbollah officials and Hezbollah has refrained – other than in one incident in the days after the ceasefire – from firing into Israel.
Severed supply line
The fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria earlier this month has led to a severe disruption in the supply lines through the country, which had allowed Hezbollah to attain weapons, munitions, and supplies from Iran and its Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.
New Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem acknowledged for the first time two weeks ago that Hezbollah has lost its most critical supply route from Iran through Syria, revealing how the collapse of the Assad regime has hindered the group’s capacity to rearm following a significant Israeli offensive.
Syria, under Assad, served as Iran’s most vital state ally in its network of regional militias and political organizations across the Middle East, including Hezbollah. It was also a crucial geographic corridor facilitating the transfer of weapons and supplies from Iran to Lebanon, enabling Hezbollah to act as Iran’s forward presence against their mutual adversary, Israel.