Jordan and Egypt are both important states in the Middle East, and they have been Israel’s historic peace partners from the 1980s to 1990s.
This means that these two countries share certain qualities that are of great importance to Israel and the wider region.
Egypt, the most populous country in the area, is a historic center of military power and culture.
Jordan, by contrast, is less populated and is a relatively modern country straddling an expanse of desert between Israel, the Gulf, and Syria.
The Kingdom of Jordan enters 2025 with concerns about the outcome of the changes in Syria. Jordan had worked to reconcile with now-toppled president Bashar al-Assad’s regime over the last several years.
The kingdom has hosted hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees. Many Syrians who fled southern Syria have clan or tribal ties in northern Jordan, so their appearance in Jordan did not change Jordan’s demographics.
However, this is a burden for Jordan, which is a relatively poor country compared to others in the Gulf. Jordan is a historic monarchy that grew out of the British Mandate era.
The monarchy has to balance the interests of former Bedouin tribes with the townspeople of northern Jordan and the Palestinians who fled to Jordan in 1948.
Amman views itself as having unique rights in Jerusalem, and even though it gave up its claims to the West Bank, it has a keen interest in the Palestinians. It has been concerned about the outcome of the October 7 massacre and how that might propel Hamas to power in the West Bank.
Jordan is also concerned about being used as a conduit for Iranian weapons smuggling via Iraq. The Iranian-backed Kataib Hezbollah group in Iraq attacked US forces in Jordan in January 2024, killing three Americans. The kingdom is aware that it is sandwiched between Iran’s interests in Iraq, Israel, the Palestinians, the Gulf, and Syria.
Thus, it knows it must balance all these nations that surround it. Jordan is likely concerned that the Syrian shift in power to a new government could lead to troubles at home.
What if Jordanians get the idea that they could have similar changes in Amman?
The kingdom, thereby, has to navigate the new regional order. It has to be hoped Iran and Iranian-backed militias stop trying to threaten Israel via Jordan or its airspace.
Jordan must also wonder if the new Syrian leadership might become closer to Saudi Arabia, which would be a welcome decision for Amman. What would not be is if the Syrian government orients itself toward Turkey and Doha – this could possibly lead to trouble in the kingdom.
Egypt's concern
AS FOR Egypt, it is concerned about the outcome of the Syrian regime’s fall. Assad had long sought a partnership with Egypt after the Arab Spring led to changes in the region. Former president Hosni Mubarak’s government in Egypt fell during the Arab Spring and was replaced for a short time by the Muslim Brotherhood-led government of Mohamed Morsi.
Morsi was overthrown by popular protests and the army in 2013. President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi then came to power.Morsi was imprisoned and died. Sisi has steered Egypt into a new Middle East.
However, Egypt has had to straddle several different conflicts. It has backed the eastern Libya group led by Cmdr. Khalifa Haftar, while Ankara and Doha backed groups in western Libya.
Cairo has grown closer to Greece in the Eastern Mediterranean. It has also had to watch Sudan fall into civil war. It appears that Gaza chose to ignore Hamas threats that were growing toward Israel. As such, Egypt did not get wind of the planned October 7 massacre to warn Israel.
Since then, it has been more concerned about Israel going into Rafah and taking control of the Philadelphi border area than with condemning the massacre.
This is a concern because stability and peace require Cairo to be an honest broker. If Egypt turned the other way as Hamas plotted in exchange for some kind of relaxation of Doha and Ankara’s rhetoric regarding the former Morsi regime, then this is worrisome.
Clearly, Doha and Ankara backed Hamas, and Egypt once opposed the Muslim Brotherhood, which Hamas has links with.
The concern is what may have changed in Egypt.
Years ago, an Assad regime official – Ali Mamluk – reached out to Egypt to see if Cairo might be keen on supporting it against the rebels.
Egypt was concerned that the Arab Spring was letting chaos loose in the region, and it considered the Assad regime a potential partner for stability, along with the Gulf.
However, Egypt was cautious. The regime has now fallen, and Cairo is again cautious regarding the new leaders in Damascus. Egypt doesn’t want the blowback from Syria to end up in Egypt.
As such, Egypt and Jordan are both going into 2025, wondering if this year will bring peace and stability or more changes in the region.