Hamas will soon enter the disarmament stage, the IDF said on Friday.
The announcement is aspirational in that Hamas has not yet begun the process, and no one can really know whether the Gaza terror group will follow through. The statement exhibits the IDF’s growing confidence – according to military sources – that Hamas, overall, is leaning toward taking “painful” steps to avoid Israel re-invading the Gaza Strip.
The IDF was extremely vague about what such disarmament could look like.
The United States said, around three months ago, that by late April to early May, Hamas would need to begin handing over its heavy weapons, namely its remaining rockets, drones, and anti-tank missiles, along with maps of its remaining terror tunnels.
Prior to the IDF’s statement, there had been significant media speculation that Hamas might take advantage of the fact that Israel and the US would be distracted by the war with Iran and thus attempt to drag out the deadline for entering the first disarmament stage.
In fact, in public, Hamas has demanded that Israel allow more rebuilding processes to take place in Gaza before it is asked to disarm. So far, Israel has not agreed. Hamas last week conditionally rejected US demands to start disarming.
The IDF statement appears to reflect deeper confidence that Hamas may negotiate some concessions from the US and Israeli sides, but that it will ultimately begin the disarmament process, a radical step it has never taken before.
No date for when Hamas needs to proceed to stage two of disarmament
No date has been set for when Hamas needs to proceed to stage two of disarmament. That said, even if that step occurs, there is no deadline for when the terror group might have to give up its Kalashnikov rifles (stage two of disarmament), which help it to dominate Gaza. It is also unclear whether Hamas will ever do so, since such a step might truly risk its control of the Strip.
No one has even discussed with any real seriousness the possibility that Hamas might give up its small weapons, such as handguns (stage three of disarmament).
On January 28, regarding scenarios for disarming Hamas, the IDF rejected ideas that have been leaked by US officials, focusing at this stage on collecting Hamas’s “heavy” weapons, such as rockets and rocket-propelled grenades, for storage. The military said then that placing those and any other Hamas weapons in storage would be essentially allowing them to keep their weapons but just changing their address.
In fact, the IDF said that putting those types of arms in storage in Gaza would barely even slow down Hamas from assembling them, as they would be able to either control the limited-storage guards or could easily overpower them.
Further, the IDF stated on January 28 that merely collecting those kinds of heavy weapons would fall far short of being sufficient, as seizing Hamas’s Kalashnikov rifles would be crucial to limiting its lethal capacity in any battle with the military.
A large number of the October 7, 2023, victims were killed with Kalashnikovs, which are far more formidable and have a longer range than simpler handguns, such as those that the IDF might be able to tolerate Hamas having those other weapons for a longer period of time.
The IDF clarified that the International Stabilization Force (ISF) would not perform any significant duties within Hamas-controlled areas.
Rather, it would focus on new neighborhoods in Israel-controlled portions of Gaza and on policing the Israel-Hamas Yellow Line, while other reports have said it would also handle some other border issues.
Next, the IDF said that in a best-case scenario, Hamas’s security control of Gaza might turn from its fully green color to a metaphorical lighter shade of green if the future Palestinian police force gets off the ground and can maintain the number of committed Hamas fighters within its ranks at a minimum.