Israel eliminated the commander of Hezbollah’s Radwan force on Wednesday evening, the IDF reported. The precision strike against Ahmed Ghaleb Balout was one of many recent Israeli operations.
The tempo of Israeli operations has been different since the ceasefire in Lebanon in early April. Israel continues to act against Hezbollah, however, and is dismantling its terrorist infrastructure.
The question now is whether this week’s precision strike against the Radwan commander will have an effect.
According to the IDF, it has eliminated 220 Hezbollah terrorists and commanders in recent weeks. More than 85 were eliminated in the past week, the IDF reported.
They include other members of the Radwan force, such as Muhammad Ali Bazi, head of its Nasr unit’s intelligence department. In addition, a Hezbollah air-defense observation officer was killed.
The challenge in Lebanon is whether these strikes will have an effect, or whether Hezbollah will simply replace them.
In the past, Hezbollah lost many of its key commanders. This was particularly true in September-November 2024, when the IDF eliminated much of Hezbollah’s command structure.
The problem is that Hezbollah replaced many of these people. It has shown resilience in being able to weather these blows and continue its threats to Israel.
The military has the resources to deal with drone threats
One way Hezbollah has done this recently is by innovation. It is using new FPV (First Person View) drones with munitions attached. In addition, the drones fly while attached to a fiber-optic cable that spools out from them, which makes them impossible to jam.
That means the small drone can hunt around for targets of opportunity. This has become a challenge for the IDF.
The IDF has the resources to deal with drone threats. Israeli defense companies are some of the most advanced in the world for dealing with the problem, but not every threat can be predicted or confronted immediately. Israel has done well against other types of Hezbollah drones.
The challenge, therefore, is that while Hezbollah absorbs losses, it also innovates. It has lost older commanders who had decades of experience.
This means it has lost commanders who remember the 2006 war with Israel and also fought in Syria. These men were tethered to old Hezbollah doctrines and tactics.
It’s possible that Hezbollah’s young replacements will have less experience, but they might learn quickly from the new battlefield.
Israel has carved out a buffer zone in southern Lebanon, which puts soldiers in harm’s way. The theory is that it means Hezbollah will attack in the buffer zone rather than within Israel.
The problem is that the longer the soldiers stay in the buffer zone, the more time Hezbollah has to observe them and practice new tactics with different weapons.
This is clearly the challenge now. It’s possible that new attacks on Radwan commanders may come before a US-Iran deal, which could include extending the ceasefire in Lebanon.
This might lead to pressure on Israel and the Lebanese officials to meet, including a focus on Lebanon disarming Hezbollah, or at the very least, Hezbollah ending its attacks.
This would seem to kick the can down the road in terms of another confrontation, which is what has happened in the past.