Several years ago, if one were to peruse Turkish media sites, it was likely that sources in Ankara would be talking about a new war somewhere. Turkey was fighting the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which it views as terrorists, and it seemed to be finding terrorists everywhere. Turkey has been fighting in Syria since 2016, and it has also had bases in northern Iraq’s Kurdistan region since the 1990s. It was also on a collision course with Greece, and it was involved with Libya and other countries.
Today, Ankara appears to have changed course. It backs the new Syrian government and has appeared to support the Syrian Democratic Forces’ integration into the new Syrian security forces.
Notably, in 2019 – not long ago – Turkey was invading Syria to fight the SDF. Ankara was also carrying out drone strikes on the SDF, even though the US was backing the SDF. The US and Turkey are NATO allies, but Ankara seemingly didn’t care about the US’s role in Syria at the time. Turkey accused the SDF of being linked to the YPG, which it viewed as the Syrian branch of the PKK.
In Syria, Turkey is backing reconstruction and seeking to help Damascus modernize its forces. This was not greeted with pleasure in Jerusalem. Israel tends to view Turkey as an emerging threat and thinks that Turkey’s role in Syria is problematic.
Ankara, however, would like to show that this is not the case. Today, it wants a stable Syria. This is a big change from a few years ago, under the Assad regime, when Syria was divided, and Iran was entrenching itself within Syria. Turkey was not optimistic about Syria. It had sent its forces into an area near the Euphrates in 2016, in northern Syria, to stop the SDF’s advance near Manbij.
Then, Turkey invaded the Kurdish area of Afrin in 2018. It backed a Syrian proxy force named the SNA. Notably, the SNA was largely made up of corrupt gangs. Ankara’s policy was, at the time, mostly a failure. It had weakened the Syrian rebellion and largely sidelined the rebels, using them to fight the Kurds.
On other fronts, Turkey’s policy continues to lack clarity
This all changed when Hayat Tahrir al-Sham rolled into Damascus in December 2024, and the Assad regime fled. Turkey shifted away from backing weak gangs of proxies and decided to cement ties with the new government in Damascus. Instead of pushing an extremist line, Turkey has been pragmatic. It has also worked with Gulf countries, as well as the US, who support Syria.
On other fronts, Turkey’s policy continues to lack clarity. Back in 2019, Ankara wanted to work with the Libyan government to control larger swaths of the Mediterranean, essentially pushing Turkey’s claims over the Greek islands and Cyprus. This was a major threat to stability in the Eastern Mediterranean. In those days, Ankara would often issue navigational warnings and claim that it was conducting exercises, which were usually used to provoke Greece.
Unsurprisingly, Israel, Greece, and Cyprus have grown increasingly close in recent years. Turkey can see what is happening and has apparently stepped back from trying to turn the Eastern Mediterranean into a never-ending conflict. It’s unclear if this trend will continue, but if it does, many challenges that countries in the Mediterranean face could be reduced.
Turkey has also been working toward a pragmatic deal with the PKK. The PKK has signaled that it could disband and disarm, or at least rebrand itself. Turkey is willing to entertain this after four decades of war. This could help in northern Iraq, where Turkey’s war with the PKK has displaced Kurds. The trickle of bodies coming back to Turkey from that war has left Turkish families without their sons due to the endless conflict. Now, things may change; peace could happen.
Turkey’s decision to shift gears in Iraq is also part of a wider regional approach to patch things up with Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Ankara now wants closer ties with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Pakistan, and other countries.
This has led to concerns in Jerusalem. Turkey has often been critical of Israel. Where once the countries were friends, they are no longer.
However, political changes in both countries over the next decade could change this trend. The question is whether Israel and Turkey can come to an understanding on various issues, from Syria to the Eastern Mediterranean.