Voting for the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) should be delayed by three to four months to allow authorities to wait for the outcome of Israel’s election and address the obstacles to holding a credible and effective vote, according to the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR).
Five major structural impediments justify postponing the election, it wrote in a brief published on Monday.
Israel’s control over Area C and east Jerusalem makes it unclear whether Palestinians in those areas will be able to vote, the PCPSR said.
Jerusalem is pursuing an “annexationist agenda,” it said, adding that Israel could interfere with the electoral process by confiscating election materials, arresting political candidates, and restricting some communities from participating in the vote.
The Palestinian Authority lacks operational security and administrative presence across the Gaza Strip and in expanding regions of the West Bank, making it impossible to safeguard polling locations, protect personnel, ensure secret balloting, or enforce election results, the PCPSR said.
Without the PA’s administrative control, holding elections in Gaza risks producing widespread voting failure, it said, adding that the unresolved political and legal status of Hamas currently presents a “major political contradiction.”
Without genuine reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah, the potential outcome of Hamas winning a significant number of seats in the council could cause major issues, especially given that many international donors are conditioning reconstruction aid for Gaza on Hamas’s exclusion from executive governance, it said.
Mass displacement in Gaza erroded trust in electoral process
Amendments to Palestinian electoral law that require candidate lists and individual nominees to explicitly pledge adherence to the PLO as the sole legitimate representative create a legal requirement that risks excluding prominent political movements, independent factions, and anti-establishment coalitions that reject specific PLO agreements, the PCPSR said.
Public trust in the electoral process had been severely eroded by the mass displacement in Gaza, the PA’s fiscal insolvency, unchecked settler violence, and modifications to the election laws, which could undermine the core purpose of establishing a new governing authority, it said.
Compounding these issues, Israel’s election is set to take place on October 27, and some political parties would likely use cracking down on Palestinian electoral activity as a means to demonstrate their “toughness,” the PCPSR said.
PLC and presidential elections could trigger a constitutional deadlock
Palestinians are also expected to vote in presidential elections in 2027, which could create constitutional instability and potentially trigger a constitutional deadlock if a newly elected PLC challenged PA President Mahmoud Abbas’s executive authority, it said.
Assuming the PLC elections take place as scheduled, or after a short delay, they would center around five distinct political forces: Fatah leaders, Fatah dissidents, Hamas and its potential coalition partners, leftist parties, and civil society groups, the PCPSR said.
Despite polls demonstrating widespread dissatisfaction with Abbas’s leadership, the official Fatah movement has substantial institutional advantages, including patronage networks, party discipline, and administrative experience, it said.
The official leadership may also attempt to appeal to more voters by recruiting youth leaders, civil society figures, and respected independents, but such efforts would likely be hindered by voter frustration with PA corruption, security coordination, and economic stagnation, it added.
The Fatah dissident faction list, centered around imprisoned Fatah leader Marwan Barghouti and prominent figures such as Qaddoura Fares, has tremendous appeal to voters, the PCPSR said.
Polls indicate that Barghouti is the most popular Palestinian figure and would receive 54% of the vote in the presidential election. Should Barghouti’s list run separately against an official Fatah list, however, it would capture 33% of the vote, while the Fatah official list would receive 14%, it said.
Anti-Abbas coalition centered on Hamas, other terrorist factions
Possibly the most decisive force would be a broad anti-Abbas national opposition coalition centered on Hamas but extending beyond it, the PCPSR said.
The ongoing talks with Hamas by Mohammad Dahlan’s Democratic Reform faction, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), Nasser al-Qudwa’s political movement, and independent figures could provide Hamas the opportunity to run through a unified national list, it said.
By nominating independent technocrats, respected national figures, and nonpartisan candidates, Hamas could broaden its electoral reach while also shielding the list from international sanctions, the PCPSR said.
The fourth camp, which consists of leftist lists such as the Palestinian National Initiative (Mubadara), PFLP, Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP), and Palestinian People’s Party (PPP), collectively commands about 18% support among likely voters, it said.
The final camp, comprising independent and civil society lists, faces significant structural hurdles and limited financial resources, making a substantial parliamentary presence unlikely, it added.
A fragmented parliament
The PCPSR said it was unlikely that the 2006 results would be repeated, as the November election will most probably produce a more fragmented parliament.
The August 2026 poll found that Fatah would receive 32% among likely voters, Hamas 29%, and third parties combined 18%. At the time, however, a crucial 21% of likely voters remained undecided, the PCPSR said.
The emerging Hamas-Dahlan coalition could consolidate multiple small voting blocs into a dominant parliamentary force, especially given that the anti-Abbas opposition coalition started with a base of at least one-fifth of the electorate, it said.
Fatah’s official faction insisted that it could not secure a parliamentary majority unless opposition forces remained deeply divided, it added.