As Trump exits, Biden pummeled on Iran from all sides - Analysis
Hovering over Biden is the fact that the Islamic Republic goes to elections in June and will likely be led by an even more hard-line president than Hassan Rouhani going forward.
By YONAH JEREMY BOBUS President-elect Joe Biden and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.(photo credit: ANDREW HARNIK/YOAV DUDUKEVITCH/REUTERS)Joe Biden replaces Donald Trump as US president in 27 days.But neither Israel nor Iran nor groups in the US are waiting for January 20 to roll around to start staking out positions and taking actions to hem Biden in.How will all of these pressures impact Biden’s critical policy decisions regarding Tehran?The two key issues in play are: 1) Will Biden try to convince Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to make additional concessions (fill 2015 nuclear deal loopholes) as part of the US rejoining the deal; and 2) if there are additional concessions, which ones will get into the new deal and which loopholes may remain?Iran’s strategy has been to use its parliament to threaten the US that it will violate the deal even more than it is doing now if there is not progress by February 2.Already construction is progressing at a new underground nuclear facility at Natanz to replace the advanced centrifuge facility which was blown up on July 2.It has also used proxy groups to fire 21 rockets at the US embassy in Iraq.Hovering over Biden is the fact that the Islamic Republic goes to elections in June and will likely be led by an even more hard-line president than Hassan Rouhani going forward.All of this is designed to get Biden to rejoin the nuclear deal as quickly as possible and with zero or limited new concessions by Iran.Reportedly, Israel was behind the assassination of Iran military nuclear program chief Mohsen Fakhrizadeh and purposely revealed it had a submarine in maritime waters closer to Iran than it normally sails.
The US has done the same with its navy, even revealing how many tomahawk missiles one of the vessels was carrying.Trump also threatened the ayatollahs that he will respond harshly if a single US soldier is killed.Weeks ago, Trump was reportedly considering a broader strike on Tehran before leaving office, but as The Jerusalem Post said at the time, it appears this was more about psychological warfare or covering for other activities like the strike on Fakhrizadeh.Trump’s Iran czar, Elliott Abrams has also been increasing US sanctions on the ayatollahs and making the rounds in the Middle East and at various think tanks for leveraging these sanctions into new Iranian concessions.Not to leave the playing field to all of these other actors, 150 US Congressmen in the House of Representatives sent Biden a letter in support of immediately rejoining the deal.The implication was that they had his back on quickly rejoining the deal even if he did not win any new concessions from the Islamic Republic.One hundred fifty is an important number because it prevents Congress from tying Biden’s hands on Iran.While 150 is short of a majority, it means that Biden could veto any congressional attempt to hold him back without worrying about an override from the legislative branch.Uncharacteristically, the quiet and technical IAEA has even weighed in.Happily for Israel, IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi has said that there have been so many changes on the ground since the 2015 nuclear deal: including Iranian leaps in advanced centrifuge technology, illegal underground centrifuges and enough enriched uranium for a few nuclear bombs.Basically, Grossi said that adding new provisions will be inevitable if only to restore the general balance that existed in 2015.Once that is happens, why can’t the parties discuss other issues?There is good reason for all the sides to push.Iran is not on Biden’s list of top or even secondary issues.He and his spokespeople say the first leg of his presidency will be focused on the coronavirus, the economy, racial justice and the environment.Foreign policy comes in a distant second in terms of priorities, and even there the top priorities are China and Russia.So dealing with Iran will get nowhere before the June elections unless the parties that care most about it get in the incoming president’s face.However, they should be aware that Biden is a more visceral and spontaneous personality than the famously cerebral Obama, and could take offense if pushed too far.Still, with Biden seemingly on the fence about how hard to press for new concessions from the ayatollahs, whoever is loudest and hardest to ignore might make the difference.
