Did Beirut explosion save Lebanon from Hariri verdict violence?

What is particularly interesting is that the verdict was supposed to be released the week of the massive explosion on August 4 that killed more than 150 people and left thousands homeless in Beirut.

By SETH J. FRANTZMAN
The Beirut Port after Tuesday’s explosion that killed at least 157 and wounded more than 5,000 (photo credit: REUTERS)
The Beirut Port after Tuesday’s explosion that killed at least 157 and wounded more than 5,000
(photo credit: REUTERS)
In 2005, a bomb killed former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri and 23 other people in Beirut. The bombing caused mass protests that led to Syria withdrawing from Lebanon. Years later, investigations directly linked Hezbollah to the murder.
In normal circumstances, that should have led to pressure to disband the terror group. Instead, Hezbollah has become more powerful, essentially holding Lebanon hostage as its arsenal of missiles grows along with its power in parliament and over the presidency.
The massive explosion on August 4 has left Lebanon traumatized. The tensions that might usually have developed due to a verdict pointing fingers at Hezbollah for the Hariri assassination now may be reduced due to solidarity over the explosion. Hezbollah has already sought to avoid responsibility for the August 4 blast, claiming it did not maintain the warehouse where it took place. It will now try to avoid responsibility for the infamous killing of Hariri – 15 years later. 
Now, fifteen years after the murder of Hariri, the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, an international court in The Hague, is supposed to hand down verdicts. Four members of Hezbollah are accused of the attack. The slow moving wheels of justice are typical of these kinds of tribunals and international courts. For instance those accused of crimes in the Balkans are still facing verdicts and victims have had to wait decades for any semblance of justice.
Therefore, the 15 years is emblematic of the typical failure of international tribunals and investigations. In Lebanon’s case the necessity of an international tribunal illustrates that the country is incapable of investigating the powerful Hezbollah terror group and political party on its own. This shows that Hezbollah is above the law.
WHAT IS particularly interesting is that the verdict was supposed to be released the week of the massive explosion on August 4 that killed more than 150 people and left thousands homeless in Beirut. While there are no allegations that the massive explosion is linked to the delay of the verdict, it turns out to be very convenient for Hezbollah.
The terrorist group wants to pose as being in solidarity with Lebanese who have been harmed by the explosion, and it will use the verdict to argue that whatever controversy comes out of the court case should be put aside for the greater good. Prior to the blast, there were concerns the verdict could lead to violence, especially if it made it clear that Hezbollah was responsible. 
One of the suspects in the killing, Mustafa Badreddine, was killed in Syria in 2016. The other men, Salim Ayyash, Assad Sabra, Hassan Oneissi and Hassan Habib Merhi have apparently disappeared. All of this is convenient for Hezbollah. One of the suspects is killed in Syria where Hezbollah sent fighters in 2012 to defend the Syrian regime. Others changed their names or disappeared. This means Hezbollah will never be held to account.
The case hasn’t sought to go after the big fish; it didn’t trace the Hezbollah phone network to who gave the orders. Hariri wasn’t killed by just five random men. To plan a major attack obviously requires the seal of approval from the highest levels. Hezbollah members don’t freelance assassinations of men like Hariri. They have orders from the highest levels, perhaps stamps of approval not only from Damascus but also Tehran.
If the special tribunal had gone the route like one would have gone if investigating the mafia or a terror organization – and gone after the top levels – then it would have to indict Hassan Nasrallah or maybe even Syrian regime leader Bashir Assad. 

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This means that Hezbollah has received many convenient escapes from justice. Not only did Badreddine get blown up near Damascus airport in 2016, thus escaping justice for his indictment in 2011 for the Hariri killing, but the massive explosion on August 4 delayed the verdicts. 
WHO KILLED Badreddine is not known. Internal rivalries may have resulted in his death or others may have targeted him. What is clear is that he avoided justice and that there was no attempt to go above him to look at who ordered Hariri's assassination. Several of the others indicted are accused of more peripheral roles, such as recording a fake video or obstructing justice.
Salim Ayyash is the main find for the tribunal. A brother-in-law of Imad Mughniyeh, a Hezbollah leader, Ayyash is accused of carrying out the attack. Mughniyeh was killed in 2008 in Syria. 
The explosion in Beirut might have accelerated questions about Hezbollah’s extralegal position in Lebanon, maintaining weapons in warehouses and tunnels across the country. However, the group has positioned itself once again as a power broker. France, Iran, Turkey and other countries seeking influence in Lebanon do not critique Hezbollah, and everyone seems to view them as the elephant in the room whose name they don’t want to mention. The long-awaited verdict may also show how good Hezbollah has become at dodging critique, even when it is clearly indicted. 
While some media predict the verdict will increase tensions in Lebanon, Hezbollah will do everything possible to express solidarity after the blast and seek to deflect the verdict from the spotlight it should be putting on the group.


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