Egypt, Jordan and Iraq sought an increase in security and economic cooperation at a recent summit. According to reports, it saw the “Egyptian head of state visit Iraq for the first time in three decades.”
That is a big deal. It shows that Cairo and Baghdad are repositioning themselves as important regional centers after years of crises, conflict and the weakening of major states saw power shift to Turkey, Iran, Israel and Gulf nations.
Cairo, Baghdad and Damascus are the historic major cities of the region and have been important centers of the Arab world for more than 1,000 years. This means what we are potentially seeing is a Baghdad-Cairo discussion that could shore up stability in the region after waves of terrorism and extremism.
But there are challenges.
Iran has a huge role in Iraq. It has weakened the state and has militias running around Iraq, attacking US forces and threatening protesters.
Syria, across the border, is divided between Turkish occupation and the regime-held areas, as well as the US role in the eastern part of the country.
Jordan needs economic support, and it has weathered waves of Syrian and Iraqi refugees for years. A recent accusation of a “coup” plot has also unnerved the Hashemite Kingdom.
Egypt is rapidly increasing its ties to Sudan and other states in Africa.
“America is back,” US President Joe Biden has said, and it appears the Egyptian leader’s visit to Baghdad is a way of saying, “Egypt is back.”
Egypt was the premier power in the region in the 1950s and ’60s, exporting soft power – media and culture – along with military power. Under Gamal Abdel Nasser, it played a role of influence from Lebanon to Jordan and from Syria to Yemen.
That changed over time, but Egypt continued to have a great deal of power. It was the first major country in the region, after Turkey, to normalize relations with Israel, an epic deal that showed peace could be achieved instead of endless war.
Today, it is Iran and Turkish-backed Muslim Brotherhood groups such as Hamas that want endless war in the region.
Egypt has played a larger role not only in Africa but also in the East Mediterranean, working with Greece and the new East Med Gas Forum. Israel is a part of this forum, along with Cyprus, France, Italy, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority. The UAE, which has peace with Israel, is close to Egypt as well and has been working with Greece.
All of this shows that the Egyptian leader’s trip to Baghdad is of historic importance. In recent years, Saudi Arabia has renewed relations with Iraq after years of hardship in the wake of the 1991 Gulf War.
“The visits by Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Jordan’s King Abdullah II came as Iraq seeks to move closer to Arab allies of the United States in the Middle East,” France24 reported.
Iraq is also seeking to establish itself as a mediator between Arab countries and Iran after hosting talks in April between Tehran and Riyadh, the report said. Sisi met with Iraq’s president and prime minister.
“Iraq’s recovery paves the way to an integrated system for our region built on the fight against extremism, respect for sovereignty and economic partnership,” Iraqi President Barham Salih said on Twitter.
On the list of topics was a focus on Syria. These countries want Syria to rejoin Arab regional politics, meaning an opening to the Arab League and bringing Syrian President Bashar Assad in from the cold. It also means securing stability and refugee returns.
Turkey continues to destabilize Syria, having ethnically cleansed Afrin of Kurds in 2018 and also forcing the US to leave areas of Syria in 2019 after threatening Washington.
The US empowered Turkey’s extremism because key elements of the Trump administration were pro-Turkey, while also wanting the US to work with Turkish-backed extremist groups in Idlib, some of which are close to al-Qaeda.
This cold-war thinking led the US into policy chaos in Syria, but the Biden administration may be returning things to normal. Egypt, Jordan and Iraq may be able to play a larger role in that normality.
However, US airstrikes on pro-Iran militias in Syria on Monday and Iran’s threats against the US in Iraq will continue to leave question marks.
The big three that met in Baghdad also discussed Libya and Yemen. They called for foreign mercenaries, a code word for Turkish-backed Syrians who Ankara dumped in Libya, to go back to Turkey.
They also called for renewed efforts to reach a “just and comprehensive peace” between Israel and the Palestinians and for the creation of an independent Palestinian state.
This is important because Iraq generally has not played a constructive role in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. However, Jordan and Egypt are peace partners with Israel, and a new Israeli government is working on outreach.
Prime Minister Naftali Bennett spoke with Sisi on Monday, and Foreign Minister Yair Lapid met with his Bahraini counterpart and will meet with UAE officials on Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds of change are in the air.
Egypt helped end the fighting in Gaza in May and reduce tensions. Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi said the three countries would “try to shape a common vision... through cooperation and coordination.”
This appears to mean they agree on some regional goals. This will shore up Jordan, reinforce the Gulf states that want stability and illustrate that Egypt is taking a new leadership role in the region.