A chance to help energy-starved Lebanon has provided the Syrian regime with a rare opportunity to begin regaining legitimacy with the international community.
The energy ministers of Syria, Lebanon and Egypt met with their Jordanian counterpart in Amman on Wednesday and declared a breakthrough. The Hashemite kingdom will facilitate the passage of natural gas from Egypt to Lebanon via Syria, and Jordanian electricity will be exported to Lebanon through the ailing Syrian grid.
Khaled Shnekat, former head of the Jordanian Society for Political Sciences, told The Media Line the recent visit of King Abdullah to the White House provided the quantum leap that made this meeting possible. The king was able to find ways to bypass the “Caesar law” (the US’s Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act of 2019) that places high fines on anyone trading with the Assad government, Shnekat said.
“His Majesty explained to President [Joe] Biden that Jordanian business has been badly affected by this law and as a result, the king asked for a waiver similar to the waiver that Jordan received to bypass the sanctions on Iraq,” Shnekat explained.
Having obtained the waiver and with the situation in Lebanon deteriorating, Jordanian-Egyptian energy relief became possible.
Hashem Aqel, a Jordanian expert on energy issues, said the kingdom registered a double victory with the approval of the export of electricity and the transfer of Egyptian gas to Lebanon.
“It is well known that the linkage of electricity between countries provides profits to the exporter of energy because it reduces the cost of domestic energy when you generate more using existing facilities,” he said.
Jordan will also benefit from the rental of the Egyptian gas lines that go through it headed for Lebanon, Aqel said.
Lebanon has been crippled by a huge shortage of electricity and is in dire need of additional supplies of energy.
The four-way ministerial meeting dealt with the infrastructure, the safety of the structures, the size, and the financial aspects of the proposals. Sources tell The Media Line there is talk of the World Bank funding the maintenance of the pipelines and the electrical grid in Syria, which badly needs repair.
Now that the project has received US approval and a waiver from the Caesar Act, it is expected that technical committees will meet to prepare what is needed to implement the project.
Amer Shobaki, an expert on oil and the Gaza Strip, told The Media Line that Jordan can export about 3,000 megawatts of electricity and that this can be increased as well.
“This is more than enough to cover the needs of Lebanon in terms of electricity. What is available already from plants in Lebanon today provides only about 1,200 to 1,600 megawatts, and therefore what is needed immediately is 1,400 megawatts,” he said.
Jordan can provide Lebanon with electricity at a lower cost than it currently pays to generate power using diesel, Shobaki said.
Jordan uses natural gas and will depend on shale oil to increase its electrical capacity. In addition, Jordan can supply Lebanon with all its gasoline and diesel needs using its petroleum refinery located in Zarqa. Lebanon needs 100,000 barrels a day of both gasoline and diesel.
Experts say Lebanon could save a lot of money that currently goes to intermediaries if it buys directly from the Jordanian refinery. Lebanon can also buy directly from the two large companies that supply Jordanians with petroleum – Manasser Oil & Gas and Total − at competitive world prices. Naturally, the Lebanese government could add to that a value-added tax of 11%.
Sources tell The Media Line that Jordanians have received positive feedback from Lebanese government officials and members of parliament regarding the proposed new sources of energy.
Shnekat said Wednesday’s meeting in Amman that allowed for the passage of electricity and gas via Syria doesn’t mean Washington has suspended the Caesar Act.
“The US wants to help stabilize Lebanon, and this can’t happen without gas going through Syria. On the other hand, the Syrian regime sees in this move an opportunity to show goodwill toward the international community,” he said.
“What Washington wants is a serious political process and not a sham effort such as the recent elections in Syria. The US also wants stability in Syria and the defeat of radical forces in that country,” Shnekat said.