Today, Oman’s neutrality is being put to the test, especially given the growing power struggle between Saudi Arabia and Iran and domestic economic woes.
Historically, Oman has stood apart from other Gulf states. Although Oman is part of the Gulf Cooperation Council, it has not aligned itself with the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen or joined in the blockade of Qatar. It maintains relatively stable relations with the Gulf as well as Iran, a seemingly impossible feat in the increasingly polarized region.
Oman’s foreign policy has long been characterized by its careful neutrality and emphasis on diplomacy. Highlighting this policy, on Tuesday, during a meeting between Omani Deputy Foreign Minister Sheikh Khalifa Al Harthy and US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, Sherman thanked Oman for its role of “mediating peace in the region.”
At the same time, Oman is facing a progressively worrisome economic situation. The sultanate is heavily reliant on oil, with over 80 percent of total exports in 2018 coming from hydrocarbons and their oil reserves expected to run out within the next 25 years. The coronavirus pandemic heightened pressure on the economy, with oil prices plummeting and causing economic slowdown in the country, resulting in youth protests in some areas.
These economic troubles are increasingly pressuring Oman to transition its economy and bring in foreign investments. Sultan Haitham bin Tariq wants to diversify the economy in the country, including through its Vision 2040 plan, which centers around increased infrastructure as well as job growth.
However, the sultan is also weighing the price of regional neutrality. As countries around Oman sign economic and infrastructure agreements, many of which are contingent on alliances between the countries, Oman watches. Taking sides politically might be a prerequisite to bolstering the Omani economy, a fact that is not lost on the new sultan.
Earlier this month, Sultan Haitham bin Tariq visited Saudi Arabia in the first visit by an Omani leader in over a decade. This marked a departure from Sultan Qaboos bin Said who ruled for almost five decades before him and championed the country’s neutrality. Since coming to power in January of last year, Haitham bin Tariq has treaded carefully, as the visit to Saudi Arabia was the first trip abroad since he came to power.
While in Saudi Arabia, the Sultan met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and discussed the relationship between the two countries. They also signed agreements on commerce and investment promotion, as well as discussing diversifying trade routes. The meeting also was an important signal of Gulf solidarity against Iran, whether or not the Omanis wanted this signal to be sent.
At the same time, Oman has been careful not to get too close to the Saudis and maintain a friendly relationship with Iran. In April, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif visited Oman, discussing “enhanced bilateral, regional, and global coordination” according to a tweet from Zarif after the meeting.
For now, Oman appears to be maintaining a positive relationship with both Iran and Saudi Arabia, a feat that no other country in the region can claim. However, as Oman becomes more desperate to diversify itself economically, this position might be forced to shift. Especially given the Gulf’s kindred economic troubles surrounding oil dependence, they might have to prioritize this relationship. The Saudi-UAE bloc has shown few reservations of pressuring other countries to adopt its positions, but at what point might Oman give in?
IN STARK contrast to other countries in the region, Oman seeks to play the role of a regional balancer. Nowhere is this clearer than in Yemen.
Other than Iran, Oman is the country with the greatest influence on the Houthis in Yemen. Oman has hosted Houthi officials since 2015 and has been both criticized and applauded for its objectivity towards the group.
Recently, Oman has started to play a more active role in the war in Yemen. The sultanate has stepped up and gotten involved in peace negotiations to solve the conflict.
On June 5, an Omani delegation travelled to Houthi-controlled Sanaa for the first time since the outbreak of war in 2014. The delegation got approval from both the Saudis and Americans, with Omani foreign minister Sayyid Badr al-Busaidi speaking with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken the day before the delegation left. The Saudi-US backing of the visit shows that the two major players believe that the Omanis can play an important role in moving the negotiations forward.
“We discussed with the Omani delegation about a possible vision for ending the aggression and lifting the siege imposed on Yemen, starting with the humanitarian operation,” Houthi chief negotiator Mohammed Abdulsalam said of the visit. “Today, we return to the Sultanate of Oman to complete these discussions and support the international efforts that help reach a solution.”
Oman is uniquely interested in a resolution to the war in Yemen, which has dragged on for seven years. Oman’s top priority continues to be its stability, which is greatly threatened by the continuation of the war, especially with the rise of terrorist groups like Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).
Although still neutral, Oman’s increased role in negotiations in Yemen show its increasing importance as a regional player, and its prioritization of stability over noninvolvement. Whether this policy will spread elsewhere is still unclear, but for the time being, watching Oman’s actions in Yemen is pivotal to understanding the future of the country in the region.
ANOTHER country to watch Oman’s relationship with is Israel. Oman has had a unique relationship with Israel historically. Oman backed the 1979 peace agreement between Israel and Egypt and was one of the first Arab countries to host senior Israeli officials in the 1990s, including former Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin in 1994.
As always, Oman has historically wanted to remain neutral towards Israel, limiting its contact with the country. This theme continues to today on its stance towards normalization and the Abraham Accords, which Oman has stayed away from at this point.
In February, Busaidi described that, “As regards Israel we are content so far with the level of our current relations and dialog, which involves the appropriate channels of communication.”
However, as Oman looks to advance its economy, this position might change. As countries like the UAE and Bahrain benefit from the economic aspects of normalization, Oman might also realize the potential benefits. If the price of neutrality is economic stagnation, will the Sultanate continue to pay that price? Or will they realize the economic benefits afforded to them from alliances and taking sides? Sultan Haitham bin Tariq will have to determine his priorities to find out which direction the country will go in.