In a bizarre irony and twist of fate it appears Russia and Iran are concerned about the US leaving Afghanistan and the rapid rise of the Taliban in parts of the country. If Afghanistan collapses it appears that the Taliban could end up in Kabul and perhaps sign some kind of deal with Turkey, Qatar, Pakistan and other countries that could see their interests served in a Taliban-led Afghanistan.Qatar has brokered Taliban talks with the US, likely hoping it can broker a Taliban win. Turkey wants to control Kabul airport, likely also hoping to put its feet on the neck of the embattled government and aid the Taliban conquest quietly. Pakistan has always backed the Taliban and extremists in Afghanistan.
Russia and Iran may be threatened by this setup. While Russia and Iran opposed the US in Afghanistan, they also saw the US role there as convenient. The US and other western powers could be used to shield Russia, Iran and other states. In the last several days reports emerged about Russia’s concern. “The US exit from Afghanistan is a headache for Moscow which fears spiraling fighting may push refugees into its Central Asian backyard, create a jihadist threat and even stir civil war in one ex-Soviet state, a former Russian diplomat and two analysts said. US forces vacated their main Bagram Air Base last week and most NATO forces have also pulled out. That has emboldened the Taliban, which has made territorial advances, raising fears about the Kabul government's grip on power and prompting over 1,000 Afghan security personnel to flee to Tajikistan,” noted Reuters.
This turn of events is interesting. Russia was happy to let the US do the heavy lifting in Afghanistan over the last two decades. Now that the US has called the bluff of countries that thought America wouldn’t leave, it is US adversaries that may come running to complain that the US left. This is because Iran and Russia do not share the same interests as the Pakistan-Qatar-Turkey alliance system that tends to back extremists in Afghanistan and globally. Iran doesn’t want to see more genocidal attacks on Shi’ites in Afghanistan. Iran abused poor Shi’ites from Afghanistan in recent years, recruiting them to fight in Syria. But Iran doesn’t want the community of Hazzara’s harmed. These poor people have suffered under jihadist terror for many years.
Russia doesn’t want its Central Asian friends threatened and due to its long history in Afghanistan in the 1980s, it knows all too well what might happen next. This leaves a strange setup where US NATO allies like Turkey and countries like Qatar, where the US has a base, may benefit from the US leaving, while US adversaries will be concerned. This doesn’t mean the US is necessarily right or wrong to leave. It merely illustrates the complexities of these issues and the unintended consequences at stake.