The Iran-Saudi deal has the prospect of opening up a new era in diplomacy in the Middle East, a kind of diplomatic shift that could serve as a major change after decades of war. These wars developed for different reasons, partly due to the Cold War, its aftermath, the Arab-Israeli conflict and the US-led war on terror.
The Iran-Saudi deal looks like it might shift things back to the diplomatic table and to regional power politics. One of the keywords used in regional media for this process has been “stability.”
An article at UAE-based The National noted that “restoration of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran on Friday has been widely seen as a significant and positive development for the Middle East, and rightly so. Peace and co-operation between two regional powers [sic] is vital, as viewed from the lens of stability.” Note the issue of “peace and stability,” used in other publications as well, like Foreign Affairs.
What might “stability” look like?
The region, for most of recent history, has been more unstable than stable. This began with the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s and the Iranian Revolution and its attempt to export revolution around the region, moving on to Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990.
There were two Palestinian intifadas as well as Israeli wars with Hamas in Gaza and the Second Lebanon War (2006). There was also the US invasion of Iraq in 2003. The Arab Spring led to a change in power in Egypt after which the Muslim Brotherhood tried to hijack politics in many countries in the region. Libya descended into chaos in 2011 when its dictator was overthrown, as did Yemen, and then there was the Syrian Civil War, which led to the ISIS invasion of Iraq.
Iran supported militias in Iraq and Syria and transferred arms to Hezbollah in Lebanon while backing the Houthis in Yemen.
The US had sent forces to Syria, helping to create the SDF back in 2015, after which Russia intervened. Israel launched its war-between-wars campaign against Iranian entrenchment on its borders. In 2016, Turkey invaded Syria.
Then, Iran sent proxies to attack US forces in Iraq in 2019 and Syria in 2020. That same year, the US killed IRGC commander Qasem Soleimani in Iraq. Iran attacked Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq facility and then encouraged the Houthis in Yemen to target the UAE. Turkey then intervened in Libya as Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries cut relations with Qatar, which hosted Hamas and the Taliban.
That is the instability: now for the stability.
Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries have reconciled with Qatar while Turkey reconciled with the UAE, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Israel. The Abraham Accords were signed in 2020 and the US withdrew from Afghanistan. Iran, Turkey and Russia worked together on Syria issues via the Astana process.
Turkey, Russia, the Syrian regime and Iran are currently working on a series of meetings. This is where the Iran-Saudi deal comes in. Israel, India, the UAE and the US are working together as well via the I2U2 forum.
Elsewhere, the Negev Summits have brought together Israel, Morocco, Egypt, the UAE and Bahrain. Egypt has reached out to Iraq and the UAE has increased ties with Syria. Syria’s regime has reconciled with Oman and wants to return to the Arab League, and Iraq has hosted Iran-Saudi talks.
Egypt could supply Lebanon with energy via Jordan, and Syria and China and Iran have a new deal as China and the Gulf are working more closely, in general, as is Italy.
The stability envisioned is one in which a new international balance is being formed as the US shifts focus from counter-insurgency and small wars to near-peer rivalry with China and Russia. The Middle East, sensing shifting US priorities, is taking policies into its own hands and rekindling regional foreign policy and diplomacy.
After years of conflict, there is now a sense that discussion actually may be more effective than shouting at each other and running guns via clandestine methods to proxy groups. This reality is one in which drones are not being used to attack countries and states are not falling into chaos and exporting extremists or being a sponge and magnet for proxies.
It remains unclear if the countries involved will truly turn a corner. But when “stability” is mentioned, this is what it means: the return of strong, mostly authoritarian states to the region. Unstable areas, such as Lebanon, Yemen, Libya, Syria among others, will be in the spotlight now.