Iran knows that it lost a lot of influence in the region when the Assad regime fell in Syria, which has left the Iranian regime scrambling to shore up its image by pushing several narratives via its state media.
The first is that the Syria crisis has something to do with Israel. Iran has blamed the US and Israel for helping to topple Assad’s rule while not blaming Turkey, even though Ankara played an outsized role.
Iran is spinning the story to make it seem that Israel benefits from Assad’s fall and that the Jewish state might even use the Syrian crisis to distract from the war in Gaza. Tehran wants the region to hate Israel and is doing everything in its power to achieve that goal.
The Islamic Republic is also trying to portray itself as flexible, claiming it is flexible in dealing with the West. This is because it senses that the West might see it as weak as a result of the crumbling of the Assad regime and heavy losses sustained by its proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah.
Iran may like to work with the West as it seeks to break out toward a nuclear weapon in secret, for instance. It is trying to portray a “this is fine” sense after the Assad regime’s fall, and putting out talking points about how it had warned Assad.
Tehran also wants Syrians to determine their future, Iranian officials have said. This could mean Iran is trying to salvage its influence in Damascus. It will want to accommodate the new officials there and find a way to continue to smuggle weapons through the country to Hezbollah.
Iran says it is “sparing no effort” to bring calm to Syria. This is ironic since Iran’s own policies have brought much suffering and chaos to Syria over the years. In addition, the Iranian-backed Palestinian Islamic Jihad group has spoken out. “Ziyad al-Nakhalah, secretary-general of Palestinian resistance movement Islamic Jihad, says the recent developments in Syria are an ‘internal matter’ for the Arab country,” according to state media.
Russia and Iran
Iran is also turning to Russia and other BRICS countries, including China and India, to shore up its economic ties.
It is also open to working with the Taliban. Iran signaled this on December 9 when its Afghanistan envoy met with the Taliban, according to Iranian state media.
“The Embassy of the Islamic Republic of Iran in Afghanistan wrote in a message on its official page on the X/Twitter social network that Ali Reza Bekdali, the new head of the Embassy of the Islamic Republic of Iran in Kabul, has met with Amir Khan Muttaqi, the Acting Minister of Foreign Affairs of Afghanistan,” Iran’s IRNA said.
Iran is also trying to project strength in its armed forces. It did not send troops to help Assad, and it wants countries to know that this is not because its army is weak.
One aspect of working with Russia is a new focus on trade. “Iran and Russia have initiated two major transit-logistics projects to enhance connectivity and trade efficiency,” IRNA said. “The projects include the Ulyanovsk-Astara rail route and the Volga-Caspian Sea river corridor, expected to slash transit times from 21 days to just seven.”
Lastly, Iran is open to continued talks with Russia and Turkey on the Astana Process to achieve peace in Syria. Iran and these countries had recently met on this process that goes back to 2016 and was designed to end the Syrian civil war. In Qatar’s capital of Doha this week, Iran met with other countries and discussed Astana. It’s not clear what role this will have with the new government in Damascus.