From October 26, 2024, until around February 2025, Israeli officials exhibited unprecedented and explicit confidence about both their ability and readiness to attack Iran’s nuclear program.
They also expressed a sense that they would have incoming and eventually US President Donald Trump’s backing for such a new and major move, with many hinting that it could happen in early 2025 – meaning before now.These officials had good reason to do so.During the election campaign, Trump explicitly endorsed Israel striking Iran’s nuclear program multiple times if it did it before election day.However, once he entered office, he repeatedly deemphasized Israel’s use of force and advocated loudly for a diplomatic deal.
A couple of months went by with basically nothing happening between Trump and Iran, while Israel sat patiently on the sidelines, with many top officials seeming to lose their sense of urgency or their sense that Trump would let Israel act anytime soon.
There seemed to be no plan or timeline.Then on Wednesday, it leaked that Trump had given Iran two months to cut a new nuclear deal to replace the 2015 deal, which has mostly fallen apart.
Shortly after, it leaked that leading European countries like the UK, France, and Germany (the E3) had given the Islamic Republic until June to reach a deal before facing global snapback sanctions.It would seem that now the table is finally set.Will a deal happen?
Either Tehran will reach a deal with the US and the E-3 in the next two to three months, or it will face global sanctions and possibly an Israeli air force strike.
Except that this table is not set so tightly.
No one knows when Trump's two months really start: from the day the letter was delivered earlier in March or from when the two sides start to negotiate.
And how can Trump have one deadline and the EU three have a later one in June?
Speaking of which, both May and June are utterly arbitrary. Nothing of significance is actually due to happen then in the nuclear standoff, so if Tehran suddenly proposes 75% of what Trump wants at the end of June, will he and the Europeans just walk away or give it more time?The Iranians are masters at dragging out negotiations.The real deadline is October 18, when the power of the EU three to invoke a global snapback of sanctions, which Russia and China cannot veto, would expire.The entire idea of May-June is probably more about setting the stage for an endgame that will have enough time to invoke the snapback before it expires, say by sometime in September.So, on one hand, it is good to have some kind of endgame and deadlines, even if they are probably a bit wishy-washy.But on the other hand, really what these interim deadlines mean is that the Israeli air force cannot attack Tehran’s nuclear program before the summer at a minimum.If Trump gives Iran until September, then it will be until then.
The question then becomes whether by then – nearly a full year after Israel successfully destroyed the Islamic Republic’s five S-300 advanced air defense systems, which were protecting its nuclear facilities – Iran will have recovered significant portions of its anti-aircraft defenses.
There is some hope that Russia will not sell Iran new systems or repair the old ones while it is trying to stay close to Trump, so he will push things in Moscow’s direction on Ukraine.But what if Russia does help Iran?Also, Iran has been moving many things underground, including the construction of a nuclear site at Natanz under a mountain, which has been ongoing for years and would serve as its second such site alongside Fordow.Will later this year be too late to carry out as effective an attack?Right now, Hezbollah and Hamas are in retreat and cannot make as much trouble for Israel if it does attack the Islamic Republic.Will that situation still be true in half a year?These are fateful questions that must be looked at very carefully from Israel’s perspective before it decides to just wait for an indeterminate time, or until October, without taking action.