The Iran campaign is at a boiling point, but alongside the operational successes attributed to the IDF, there is growing criticism of the decision-making process in Washington.
In a conversation with Barak Seri and Eli Ohana on 103fm, Benny Sabeti, an Iran researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), presented a pessimistic outlook regarding the factors he believes are influencing US President Donald Trump and preventing a hardline approach that could lead to the collapse of the Tehran regime.
"I saw a report indicating that Iranian researchers and lecturers who are regime agents are currently in the State Department and the White House," Sabeti claimed. He argued that these individuals, former officials from the Barack Obama administration, continue to influence key decision-making processes.
"There are many people whispering in [US Special Envoy to the Middle East] Steve Witkoff and Trump's ears, constantly applying the brakes. It's a back-and-forth game. Unfortunately, my prediction of the regime's collapse has not yet come true," he said.
Trump ‘doesn’t go all the way’
Sabeti explained that Trump's inconsistency, including his retreat from strategic strikes like the attack on gas facilities, stems from heavy pressures on him. "He doesn't go all the way. He's always hesitant," he said.
On the other hand, he described Israeli action as unprecedented in scope. "Israel gives 250 percent. They attacked a port in the Caspian Sea. This is the port that receives and supplies the Russians with UAV parts, or receives vital materials from the Russians. There has never been an attack there, not even by the Mongols. Israel does what it wants," he claimed.
He further analyzed the current power structure of the Iranian regime and compared the behavior of the Revolutionary Guards to a decentralized model, similar to Hamas in Gaza.
"Khamenei decentralized power and said: 'In your time, go ahead and shoot.' The connection between units and the high command no longer needs to exist. The Iranians have become Hamas-like in their power structure. Even if the regime falls, we will have terrorist cells," he said.
Despite the assassination of a series of senior officials, Sabeti noted that Tehran continues to replenish its ranks with veteran figures, though at a lower level. "They're bringing people back from the dead," he said, adding that there has been a dramatic decline in the quality of leadership.
However, Sabeti assessed that the scenario of the regime's disintegration remains possible, especially with the upcoming Iranian anniversary.
‘Everyone is waiting for his [Trump’s] command’
"It could happen. Saturday is the Iranian anniversary, and this could be an opportunity for the citizens," he said. According to him, the Iranian street is waiting for a clear signal from Washington. "Once Trump takes ownership of the protest, everyone is waiting for his command. They're sitting at home hungry and thirsty. Sitting at home and starving is preferable to going out and getting shot. Someone needs to give them inspiration and hope," he said.
Regarding the fear of Iranian citizens to take to the streets, Sabeti explained that it's not a lack of courage but a long-standing reality of suppression. "As a child who grew up in Iran, I can tell you. They don't believe in safety. They live their whole lives under repression," he said.
Sabeti called for continued pressure on the regime's leadership, not just its physical infrastructure. "I believe gas facilities are less important than the heads. We need to take out a few more. They appoint people who are not at the same level, and that will weaken the regime even further," he said.
According to Sabeti, if the pressure continues consistently, a turnaround may be seen soon. "If they don't stop and don't retreat, we might see a dramatic change in action within a week," he concluded.