The countries seeking to play a role in ending the conflict with Iran are positioning themselves for a postwar reality. On the other hand, the countries that appear to be more supportive of the conflict also have a lot at stake.
The US and Israel began the war against Iran on February 28 with airstrikes. A month later, it appears that Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Qatar, India, and several other countries are seeking to help ease the tensions.
Meanwhile, the UAE and some other countries are expressing concern about how Iran has lashed out in the region, and they wonder if a deal will address emerging issues, such as the drone threat.
The debate about which countries may want the war to continue is often wrapped up in leaked media reports. These reports are difficult to verify and may serve various agendas.
Some reports, for instance, portray Saudi Arabia as quietly encouraging the US approach, while other reports say this is not true. Because it is impossible to know, it’s best to leave that question aside.
The reports about countries seeking to mediate with Iran or facilitate US-Iran talks are clearer about what is happening.
Turkey, Pakistan mediate as Iran war shifts regional power
State-run broadcaster TRT (Turkish Radio and Television Corporation) reported: “Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan discussed the ongoing Iran war with his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi, and Pakistani counterpart, Ishaq Dar, according to Turkish diplomatic sources.”
“Fidan and Araghchi discussed the ‘latest situation in the war’ over a phone call, the sources said,” the report said. “In a separate phone call, Fidan and Dar discussed efforts to end the conflict triggered by the joint US-Israel attacks on Iran.”
Turkey is a NATO ally of the US. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has historically had warm ties with US President Donald Trump. Pakistan has also historically had warm ties with the US, dating back to at least the Nixon administration. Pakistan has had very good ties with the Trump administration.
As such, it is likely that both Turkey and Pakistan may have the clout and influence to help make a deal.
“Earlier, Fidan also held separate phone calls with his counterparts from China, Syria, Qatar, and Uzbekistan to discuss the course of the ongoing war in the region and efforts to stop it, diplomatic sources said,” TRT reported.
Mentioning China, Syria, and Uzbekistan in this context is important. According to reports, Trump might meet the leader of China in May. Their originally scheduled meeting was postponed. China stands to gain from this conflict, depending on how the chips fall.
“According to Turkish Foreign Ministry sources, Fidan spoke with Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan al Shaibani, Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, and Bakhtiyor Saidov, Uzbekistan’s foreign minister,” TRT reported.
Turkey’s discussions with these countries indicate its regional and global influence. Ankara is positioning itself for the postwar period and wants to help ease the way out of the war and toward an era in which it will be seen as a responsible country that is not involved in wars.
A significant shift for Turkey
This is a shift for Ankara compared with several years ago, when it had tenser relations with its neighbors, such as Greece. Today, Turkey is seeking to revert to the policy that its ruling AKP party once championed: the “zero problems” policy.
“Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi expressed Beijing’s support for Türkiye’s ‘constructive role’ in promoting Middle East talks, according to the state-run Xinhua news agency,” TRT reported.
Wang encouraged countries in the region to remain calm and respond rationally to the crisis. This is how China tries to show it has a pragmatic approach.
As a key member of various economic blocs, such as BRICS and the SCO, China is also positioning itself for the postwar era. While some have argued that the war with Iran is a message to China, Beijing might be drawing other conclusions.
Several years ago, the US was speaking about pivoting more toward Asia and confronting “near-peer adversaries” such as China. This national security concept has been upended by the Iran war. China may see an opening.
Another part of the story regarding Pakistan and other countries playing a role in mediation is that they have spoken more openly about a multipolar world in recent years.
As such, they see the new world order as one with more regional powers. They are stepping into the breach left by the vacuum in regional leadership created by the Iran conflict, and they are seeking to reduce conflict.
The US will likely value this work in the future. The White House may want to climb down, and Pakistan and Turkey may be providing a hand to do so.
This is important. More than a century ago, the US, under President Teddy Roosevelt, helped end the Russo-Japanese War. The result of these American efforts was the Treaty of Portsmouth, which was signed on September 5, 1905, at the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard in Kittery, Maine.
This was symbolic. Two years later, Roosevelt sent the American “Great White Fleet” on a round-the-world tour.
Sixteen modern American battleships took part.
This showed how the US was a rising naval power and thus a global power. By aiding Russia and Japan to end the war, the US was helping to lift the curtain on a new century in which Asian powers would come to play a major role.
In addition, it may have symbolized the long, slow decline of European powers.
What is happening today is very different.
With the US engaged in war with Iran, alongside Israel, countries are stepping in to help end the conflict. In addition, shipyards in the US, like the one where the 1905 treaty was signed, no longer build as many ships.
The world is changing. Countries that hope to play a role in that change are stepping forward.