The vast majority of IDF and Mossad top brass oppose the emerging Iran nuclear deal as insufficient in light of the power dynamics between the parties, the “blood and treasure” invested, and the threats confronting Israel, The Jerusalem Post has learned.
While that view is not unanimous, and senior Israeli officials understand the need to defer to Israel’s political echelon and to the Trump administration on certain matters, it is nearly unanimous, and senior officers and officials are making their views heard in private forums, the Post has been told.
The Trump administration has been almost entirely focused on opening the Strait of Hormuz and the nuclear issue. The IDF and Mossad had hoped for progress on the issues of ballistic missiles and terrorist proxies, which they have had to deal with on a daily basis for years, the Post understands.
These issues have been left out of the deal.
Furthermore, many senior Mossad officials and some IDF officers believe it is important to keep Iran under sanctions until the regime changes its tune in a broader way to stop threatening Israel or until it is toppled.
Officials betting on sanctions pressure
Some Mossad officials, although fewer IDF officers, believe the Iranian regime likely would fall within the year if financial sanctions pressure remains, given that the country lost more than $300 billion from being bombed and has been losing huge additional sums daily since the US counter-blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, the Post has learned.
They believe that even if Iran held out against financial sanctions from 2018-2026, the combined new pressure of the damages to the regime from the 2026 war, along with the Hormuz blockade, would finally push enough Iranians over the threshold to be willing and able to topple the regime, the Post was told.
In light of the billions of dollars expected to stream to the regime once the new deal is signed, many IDF and Mossad top brass now fear that any prospect of regime change could be delayed far past a year from now, missing a unique opportunity to make Israel and the world safer for generations.