Iran’s Guardian Council on Tuesday disqualified all non-hardliner candidates for the upcoming June 18 presidential election, including the country’s vice president and a former parliamentary speaker, shocking the country.
Iran expert Raz Zimmt of the INSS (Institute for National Security Studies) and Meir Amit Intelligence Center, said this level of disqualifications was an unprecedented “political earthquake” even in comparison to the council’s standard interference with elections.
Zimmt estimated that the remaining six candidates besides Judiciary Chief Ebrahim Raisi had no chance, showing that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei did not want to take any chances during this election cycle.
In addition, the extreme extent to which Khamenei seems to want to go to ensure Raisi’s election as president also confirms prior suspicions that he will be the ayatollah’s hand-picked successor when the 82-year-old dies.
Khamenei has had multiple serious health scares in recent years.
Likewise, Iran Observer owner and IDC lecturer Meir Javendanfar said that, “the disqualification of [former parliamentary speaker] Ali Larijani…essentially makes the upcoming Iran presidential elections a one-horse race. It’s also likely to convince more Iranians to stay away from the ballot box.”
Javendanfar surmised that the reason why Larijani “was disqualified is probably related to his view that the Islamic Republic needs to reach an understanding with the West. This is why he fell out with [Mohammed] Ahmadinejad in 2007 and resigned as Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator.”
The seven approved candidates came out of around 600 who applied.
Among the shocking disqualifications, apart from Larijani, were pragmatist Iranian First Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri. Larijani, though a hardliner, was seen as potentially being able to draw votes also from the pragmatist and reformist camps.
One weak reformist candidate was approved, but others were disqualified, or some, like Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, decided not to run.
Despite women technically being allowed to apply, none were approved.
In Iran, potential candidates in all elections are vetted by the Guardian Council, a 12-member body which reviews all candidates and legislation whose members are directly and indirectly selected by Khamenei.
The other approved candidates are: Saeed Jalil, Mohsen Rezaee Mirgha’ed, Alireza Zakani, Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi, Mohsen Mehralizadeh and Abdolnaser Hemmati.
Jalil served as secretary of the Supreme National Security Council in Iran in the past. He ran in the 2013 elections as well, when both he and Raisi lost to current Iranian President Hassan Rouhani.
Mirgha’ed was commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from 1980 to 1997.
He previously ran for president in 2009 and 2013.
Alireza Zakani, head of Iran’s Parliament Research Center, had been disqualified from running for president twice in the past.
Hashemi has in the past called for the presidential system in Iran to be abolished and replaced with a system in which the parliament appoints a prime minister. He served as deputy speaker of the Iranian parliament.
Mehralizadeh, the one reformist candidate, has served as vice president of Iran and the head of the National Sports Organization of Iran. He also ran for president in 2005, but lost.
Hemmati currently serves as the governor of the Central Bank of Iran. He has served in a variety of roles including vice president of the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB).
The disqualifications also knocked off some top former IRGC officials who might have posed somewhat of a threat, showing that the clergy-class still prefer to dominate the top jobs even as they share aspects of power with the IRGC.
When Raisi was defeated by Rouhani in 2017, he garnered almost 16 million votes, close to 40% of actual voters, and Rouhani cannot run again having completed his second term.
Raisi is much less committed to the 2015 nuclear deal with the world powers and may work to indirectly undermine it.
Alternatively, Khamenei may have decided to hold up current negotiations over the nuclear deal so that Raisi can finalize them shortly after he is selected and reap credit for the hardliner camp.
Technically, Khamenei could still personally intervene and restore one or more of the disqualified candidates.