Iran’s three-pronged messaging is designed to confuse its adversaries and paint its failures as a success.
By SETH J. FRANTZMANUpdated: APRIL 17, 2021 17:33President of Islamic Republic of Iran Hassan Rouhani speaks virtually during the 75th annual UN General Assembly, which is being held mostly virtually due to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in the Manhattan borough of New York City, New York, US, September 22, 2020.(photo credit: UNITED NATIONS/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)
Iran has a mixed message regarding its discussions with countries about the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or Iran Deal. On the one hand it is claims that it has increased enrichment to sixty percent. On the other hand it appears to claim it is working well with countries in Vienna toward adhering to the deal, which would force it to reduce the enrichment. Third, Iran appears to be pretending that an attack on its enrichment facility at Natanz has somehow helped it to replace damaged centrifuges with more advanced ones to improve enrichment. Iran’s three-pronged messaging is designed to confuse its adversaries and paint its failures as a success. Iran’s Press TV quoted one of its sources as saying that “it is not acceptable to Iran to divide the sanctions into removal, non-removable and negotiable.” “In Tehran, nothing will be accepted but the removal of all sanctions, including those related to the JCPOA, reimposed and relabeled during the Trump era.” The Press TV account says that Iran is outraged by recent European sanctions. Iran tends to connect its nuclear program to every policy relating to the West. So even if it is sanctioned for suppressing protesters, it claims that the sanctions must stop or it will enrich more. Enrichment is the Iranian regime carrot and stick in relating to the West. Then Tasnim News in Farsi there are quotes from Abbas Araghchi, the Iranian diplomat who is currently a deputy at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iran. The report says that “Araghchi, Deputy Foreign Minister and Chairman of the Negotiating Committee of our country, announced at the end of the meeting of the Joint Commission in Vienna on Saturday that the negotiating parties were approaching a new understanding to revive the [Iran Deal].” This means in English Iran is saying one thing and in Farsi another. That means its own people are desperate for the deal to be revived. Iran’s story about enrichment may thus be mostly smoke and mirrors. "Today we held a meeting to review the progress of the discussions that have taken place so far, both in the field of lifting sanctions and in the nuclear field,” said Araghchi. "We reviewed the report of the working groups…There were also good discussions at the Joint Commission meeting. It seems that a new understanding is being formed and there is a common goal among everyone. The path to be taken is now better known than ever.” This sounds very positive. "Of course, this will not be an easy path. It is not as if the differences are over," he said. "We have already said that we are not interested in long-term negotiations at all…. We think that the negotiations have now reached a stage where the parties can start writing a joint text," Araqhchi said. Iran already has its texts ready. "The Iranian delegation has prepared its texts both in the field of nuclear issues and in the field of lifting sanctions and presented them to other parties." This means the framework already exists for Iran to return to the deal. But where is the compliance? Iran claims it is waiting for sanctions relief. At the same time Iran has been bragging about its armed forces being ready for an annual day recognizing the armed forces. It is not clear what they are ready for, since Iran’s army is rarely used in its foreign policy and is not widely regarded as a major force. It remains to be seen which of Iran’s narratives reflects the true regime intention. Iran has long pretended that it has “hardliners” and “moderates” in dealing with the West. It does not mention these factions when dealing with Russia or China or other countries. It only uses them to get the West to talk to the “moderates.” Today Iran is saying on “hardline” thing in English and another more “moderate” position at home. Meanwhile it is pretending that an attack on Natanz was largely uneventful.
