Iraq faces off against pro-Iranian militia in Baghdad
A raid by Iraq security forces on some of their own members on Thursday night resulted in hours of uncertainty in Baghdad.
By SETH J. FRANTZMANA member of Hashd al-Shaabi waves a flag of Kataib Hezbollah militia group during a protest to condemn air strikes on bases belonging to Hashd al-Shaabi (paramilitary forces), outside the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad(photo credit: REUTERS)
A raid by Iraq security forces on some of their own members on Thursday night resulted in hours of uncertainty in Baghdad. Armed men from the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) responded with a convoy through the city after members of Kataib Hezbollah were detained.Kataib Hezbollah is part of the PMU and thus part of the Iraqi security forces. But it has acted as a rogue militia, firing rockets at US forces on dozens of occasions over the past year. Iraq’s new prime minister wanted to send a message by dispatching the black-clad Iraqi Counter Terrorism Service forces to detain PMU members.The question in the early hours of Friday was whether this could lead to violence between the PMU and other government forces. It did not. Instead, the more hard-core militias that are backed by Iran, and are part of the PMU, deescalated the situation and relied on their commanders to get the detainees transferred back to PMU control.This is apparently what happened, meaning that a show of force by Baghdad to rein in the Iranian-backed group resulted in a kind of quiet deal where the detained men, about 14 of them, would be held by their peers and investigated.Iraq faces a growing problem. The PMU was formed to fight ISIS and was made up of various populist militias, many of them Shi’ite and supported by Iran. They were openly religious and sectarian. They were needed during the war because the Iraqi army was weak. But the US-led coalition has helped train and mentor 200,000 members of the Iraqi forces. That means the PMU could have been disbanded. Instead, Iraq made them an official force between 2016 and 2018.They get government salaries, use weapons that are supposed to be in the hands of the government, run secret prisons and have their own armories, tanks and vehicles. But they are supposed to follow orders. Instead, some groups, such as Kataib Hezbollah, take orders from Iran and the IRGC’s Quds Force.They have killed three members of the US-led anti-ISIS coalition and one contractor. The US responded by bombing them in December and March and killing Kataib Hezbollah leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis in January.In June, there were six rocket attacks on the US Embassy, the airport and US forces at a base. Baghdad decided to detain some Kataib Hezbollah members and rockets they were preparing to fire. The show of force was a message: Stop eroding the government’s standing by attacking Iraq bases housing US soldiers.But what comes next? Iran has blamed the US for the raids. But regional media is careful not to inflame tensions. It looks like Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi, who just began his tenure, will try to replace key national security figures. He already brought back famed general Abdul Wahab al-Saadi.The question is who will blink first. Will Kataib Hezbollah stop the attacks or take this raid to mean that it still has impunity? Will this be the first of more raids and attempts to sideline or divide the PMU?
Baghdad wants to divide the good aspects of the PMU, loyal to Iraqi Ayatollah Sistani and the government, from the more extreme ones loyal to Iran. The PMU could take this as a signal that its power cannot be challenged. Its show of force, riding around Baghdad in trucks with machine guns, shows it means business.No one in Iraq wants a new conflict. Already there have been eight months of protests and hundreds have been killed. There is COVID-19, a new ISIS insurgency and economic disaster. A conflict with the PMU is not something anyone will push for seriously. But weakening Kataib Hezbollah is important to some in Baghdad and around the region. Iran will oppose this.
