Egypt-Israel ties are being closely watched in the region, including by a few notable media outlets in the Gulf, particularly from UAE media and pro-Iranian media, indicating that different parties in the region are keenly engaged in this topic.
The reason for this is clear: Egypt was the first Arab country to make peace with Israel, and historically, it has been a center of Arab military, political, and cultural power. If Egypt begins to turn on Israel due to Rafah, it could have widespread effects.
This is quite a high-stakes situation – and the next moves, by both Israel and Egypt, could tip the scales any which way. The Jordan-Israel relationship has often been tense over the last decades, and there is a particularly negative view in the region toward Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
This was clearly displayed when relations appeared to improve while Netanyahu was briefly out of office. The relationship carries a lot of baggage, and criticism of Israel is a “built-in” feature of the relationship. Jerusalem is also expecting negative statements from Amman regarding current events.
Israeli ties with Egypt different from ties with Jordan
Whereas Jordan has a large Palestinian population and public negativity toward Israel is seen as a way to placate the masses, the Egyptian relationship is different.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi came to power in 2013, and ties with Israel were then rumored to be quite good. This didn’t mean there were state visits, but it meant that things were generally quiet – and when reports did emerge, they always mentioned various levels of cooperation.
Today, things are different. There are reports that Egypt is outraged at how Israel has handled the operation in Rafah, and that it could question the peace treaty because Israel has sent so many troops, including tanks, into a sensitive area, possibly violating various terms of the treaty. Reports also emerged on Tuesday that Cairo expressed support for the South African “genocide” case against Israel at the International Court of Justice.
What matters here is not always the technicalities; what matters is perception – which is everything in the Middle East – and Israel must be perceived as strong to deter its enemies.
When Israel is perceived as weak, isolated and surrounded by enemies, those enemies only grow. They will take advantage of the situation, exploit the crisis, and criticize the Jewish state. Obviously, this is not in Jerusalem’s interest, nor is it in the interests of Jordan or Egypt, but Cairo does not want to be perceived as weak, ignored, or neglected either. For this reason, the US has been listening to Egypt’s concerns, as has Saudi Arabia. What is not clear is whether Israel is listening.
And so, the media are having a field day with reports of tensions. Pro-Iran Al-Mayadeen reported that a meeting between Egyptian and Israeli officials was canceled, along with consistent coverage of the rumored tensions by Al-Ain media in the UAE.
A report on Saturday stated that Egypt and Qatar rejected an Israeli proposal to control the civil administration in Gaza, while another from Monday expounded on Egyptian support for the South Africa case.
It remains to be seen what will come next. However, what is important is that the murmurs of a crisis between Israel and Egypt are playing into the regional sense that Israel could become more isolated and that many of the taboos in the region, such as challenging peace treaties, could suddenly become less taboo – which would be a major setback for Israel.