Libya ceasefire reduces tensions between Egypt and Turkey
In recent months, Turkey has been laying claim to swaths of the Mediterranean and risked setting off a conflict with Greece. Greece is backed by Egypt, the UAE, Israel and other countries.
By SETH J. FRANTZMANA military vehicle which belongs to the Libyan National Army (LNA) commanded by Khalifa Haftar is seen at one of their sites in west of Sirte, Libya August 19, 2020(photo credit: REUTERS/ESAM OMRAN AL-FETORI)
In a surprising move, the embattled Libyan government of Tripoli, which has received unprecedented military support from Turkey in recent months, has declared a ceasefire. It is just months after Egypt threatened to intervene in Libya’s civil war amid Ankara’s increasing role there.Turkey had shipped Syrian rebel mercenaries to Libya and armed drones raising concerns in the US and Europe as Russia also sent warplanes to Libya. Russia and Egypt back the Benghazi-based government and Turkey backs the Tripoli-based government.In recent months, Turkey has been laying claim to swaths of the Mediterranean and risked setting off a conflict with Greece. Greece is backed by Egypt, the UAE, Israel and other countries. Now Tripoli has declared a ceasefire.What happened? Turkey tries to stoke a new crisis every month and apparently Ankara is now distracted from Libya. Turkey intervened in Libya in November and December after signing a deal with Tripoli. Turkey got energy rights and in return Libya got Syrian rebels shipped from refugee camps in Syria.The move violated a UN arms embargo, but all the countries involved in Libya ignored the arms embargo. Turkey’s growing involvement was a setback for Benghazi-based commander Khalifa Haftar. He was on the verge of taking Tripoli before the Turks arrived. Then in March and April Haftar’s forces were pushed back. They retreated to Sirte, and Egypt said it might intervene to stop a collapse of Haftar’s fighters.Turkey is one of the main opponents of Egypt’s ruler Abdul Fatah al-Sisi, because Ankara backs the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, just as it backs Hamas in Gaza. Turkey’s ruling AK Party is rooted in the Brotherhood, like Hamas. This is why the UAE, which recently agreed to normalize relations with Israel, also opposes Ankara’s growing aggressions in the region.The UAE opposes the Brotherhood across the Middle East. Libya was thus part of a proxy war for the greater Middle East and it involved all the major and local powers. Turkey even tried to get the US to intervene, using the unique relationship that Turkey’s ruler Recep Tayyip Erdogan has with President Donald Trump. Turkey has recently been more vocal in its condemnation of US Democratic candidate Joe Biden.But the prize of pushing back Haftar apparently is now off the radar for Ankara, at least for a month. In its place will be a ceasefire. The ceasefire calls for demilitarizing Sirte and Jufra, which was a goal of the Tripoli-based government.It’s unclear now what will happen. It appears now that the goal will be to use the ceasefire for Tripoli to get through peace what it had tried through conflict. Turkey is an expert at using these kinds of ceasefires to get what it wants after military adventures.For instance, Turkey intervened in Idlib and then had a ceasefire with the Russian-backed Syrian regime. In addition, Turkey got the US to withdraw from part of eastern Syria in October 2019 and then agreed on a ceasefire with Russia.
Ankara’s goal generally is to work with Russia and Iran in the Middle East through a variety of these creeping ceasefires, pushing bit-by-bit Ankara’s role and influence through a kind of “salami politics” where it gets a grip on more and more of several countries from Iraq to Syria, Libya, Somalia and Qatar, where it has bases.It remains to be seen what crisis Turkey will push next now that Libya may be at peace for a few weeks or a month.
