Turkey’s goal is to stoke crises with Europe as well as also in Libya, Iraq and Syria.
By SETH J. FRANTZMANCREW MEMBERS of the amphibious landing ship tank ‘TCG Bayraktar’ pose after a landing drill during the Blue Homeland naval exercise in Izmir Bay, Turkey, in March 2019.(photo credit: REUTERS/MURAD SEZER)
Turkish actions in the Mediterranean have caused European countries and the US to increasingly take notice. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo flew to the Dominican Republic this week to speak to his Turkish counterpart, who happened to be there, to see if he could appease Turkey’s ambitions at sea.Ankara said it would “not bow down to colonialists” in the Eastern Mediterranean, an apparent jibe at European countries and the US.At the same time, the American warship USS Hershel Woody Williams, a 230-meter floating base for operations, arrived in Crete as part of a mission to look in on the tensions between the Greeks and Turks. Turkey claims it is merely conducting “research” at sea and doing surveys as part of an agreement with the embattled Libyan government in Tripoli.Ankara signed a deal with Tripoli last November that resulted in Turkey recruiting Syrian mercenaries to prop up the failing Libyan government in Tripoli. Turkish drones and ships deployed to Libya to take part in the civil war, and soon Egypt, which backs the rival Libyan government in Benghazi, was threatening Turkey and Tripoli.Turkey’s actions have led to a domino effect. Greece, Israel and Cyprus signed a pipeline deal in January that had been in the works for years. Greece and Egypt recently signed a deal regarding their claims to the sea.Turkey has now sent out its whale-like research ship Oruc Reis and a fleet of warships to waters between Cyprus and Greece to show it can sail where it wants. A Greek ship is shadowing the Turkish fleet, satellite images from Image Sat International show.Turkey does not actually need to drill for energy reserves hundreds of miles from its shore. It has not even bothered to look for energy closer to home where there are fewer disputes. The overall goal is to redraw borders and strategic power in the Eastern Mediterranean, Ankara said Tuesday.THE EU is concerned. Turkey has threatened to send refugees to Europe. It made the same threats in February, sending Syrians to the Greek border. Turkey’s goal is to stoke crises with Europe as well as in Libya, Iraq and Syria. In Libya, Turkey has come up against Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.But France also cares deeply about Libya and security relationships in the Mediterranean. It condemned Turkey’s activity earlier this year, along with the UAE, Greece, Cyprus and Egypt. Israel also has now openly backed Greece.But Turkey has some tricks up its sleeve. It has gotten Italy and Germany on board to back its ambitions, and it likely has the United Kingdom as well. Germany and the UK are key trading partners for Turkey, and in the COVID-19 crisis, trade is important.
Ankara has economic problems, but it is gambling that the Europeans need Turkey more than it needs them. The Austrians are nonplussed and this week said they stand with Greece.Turkey’s media is fanning the flames of conflict. The pro-government media highlights the populist and militarist position of the country’s leadership. Ankara is the largest jailer of journalists in the world, so there is no critical media in Turkey that asks questions about what the country’s goal is.Meanwhile, Ankara has also threatened the UAE after Abu Dhabi agreed to normalize ties with Israel. This puts Turkey on a collision course with Greece and a network of Greek allies that are angered by its moves in Libya and elsewhere.Turkey says its fight for the sea is a fight for the future. It is not clear if the real goal is just to get more concessions from the Trump administration, as it has received in the past, or if it will continue to press its claims. That it put to sea its research vessel and seven naval vessels shows this is a real display of force.Ankara has also recruited lobbying firms in Washington as well as think tanks and experts to push its case via various media. This is a full-court press by Turkey that combines, in a Clausewitz-like style, the military, research vessels, energy claims, politics, foreign policy, Syrian mercenaries, lobbyists and media.Whether France, Greece, Egypt and others can actually work together to deal with this issue and get the US to take it seriously, rather than give in to Turkey’s unclear demands, remains to be seen.
