Russia signals openness to the US, could that change the Middle East?
Where could the “bilateral cooperation continue,” as the Russian Foreign Ministry has indicated it might? On Iran, Russia sees US steps so far as pragmatic.
By SETH J. FRANTZMANRussian President Vladimir Putin shakes hands with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani during a meeting on the sidelines of a session of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council In Yerevan, Armenia October 1, 2019(photo credit: REUTERS)
Russia is signaling a willingness to open a new page in relations with the US as the Democratic administration settles into power in Washington. The Russian Foreign Ministry would respond constructively to US signals, TASS state media in Moscow said.“We look upon these relations as those of an equal, mutually respectful and mutually beneficial partnership,” the ministry said. Russia says it has never refused to cooperate with the US, even in difficult times.However, Moscow is suspicious of the new Biden administration’s support of sanctions on Russia that have been pushed in Europe. Clearly the message from Moscow is that Russia wants to be seen as an equal on the international stage and that there could be movement on some issues.Russia has tried to claw back the historic power it had during the Cold War, and it has spent decades rehabilitating its military and foreign-policy influence.Where could the “bilateral cooperation continue,” as the Russian Foreign Ministry has indicated it might? On Iran, Russia sees US steps so far as pragmatic.The United States’ willingness to return to the original Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA, known as the Iran nuclear deal) is a pragmatic and right approach, Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia’s permanent representative to international organizations, including the IAEA, in Vienna, said in a televised interview on Rossiya-24 news channel on Friday, TASS reported.“In this situation, we see that either Tehran or Washington starts saying that the other side must make the first step,” he said. “It is a road to nowhere. The only way to make progress is to synchronize practical steps so that nobody could assume they have lost face.”The statements seem to indicate an attempt by Moscow to put a positive face on relations and the prospect of change. Moscow has done this before with every US administration.Vladimir Putin has been in power since 2000 and has sought better relations with the Bush administration and a “reset” during the Obama administration. It worked with Trump and now is open to Biden.Russia still stands accused of meddling in the 2016 US presidential election to the detriment of the Democrats. The US also opposes Russia’s role in the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Europe and has supported Ukraine in its dispute over Russia’s annexation of Crimea. The US also opposes Egypt’s increasing arms purchases from Russia.
On the other side of the coin, Russia and the US could discuss the future of Syria. The US backs the Syrian Democratic Forces in eastern Syria.In late February, the US carried out airstrikes on Iranian-backed militias in Syria, near Albukamal and the Iraqi border. Russia only received a few minutes warning before the strikes, according to reports.In the past, the US and Russia have de-conflicted in Syria so that their air forces don’t collide. Other recent headlines indicate that both Russia and Turkey want the US to return to the Iran deal.Russia could be a “broker” between Israel and Syria, Middle East Eye reported. Iran’s disruptive proxies in Syria might lead to Russian concerns about Tehran’s role in Syria, Turkey’s TRT suggested.Iran’s role could undermine Russia’s attempts to stabilize the Syrian regime. Iran and Russia compete for influence with private security companies in Syria, Al-Monitor reported.It is not clear if the US could move forward on discussions about Syrian stabilization with Russia, which might see Iran’s role eroded. It may be that the US and Russia share interests in reducing Iran’s role in Syria.Israel, Turkey and others on the sidelines also likely want Iran’s role reduced. How that might come about is not yet clear because the US administration has been in close contact with Israel but has done less with Russia or Turkey. It is not clear what the Biden game plan is for Syria.An Iranian-backed militia attack on US forces at Al-Asad Base in Iraq in early March illustrates that pro-Iranian groups will continue to target US forces in Iraq. The US has been careful not to blame Iran for the attacks.
