Syrian air-defense systems fired wildly against what foreign reports said were Israeli airstrikes on Friday.
“The Israeli enemy launched an aerial attack... targeting positions near Damascus and around the city of Homs,” a Syrian regime media outlet reported.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a London-based group, said four pro-Iranian fighters allied to the Damascus regime were killed. Syrian air defenses supposedly downed “hostile targets,” with Russian military sources leaking that 22 Israeli missiles were shot down.
But Syrian air defenses also fired wildly, with shrapnel and debris falling over Jordan and Israel, according to varying reports. This was apparently debris from a Syrian S-200. Two commercial airliners also had to divert during the Syrian air-defense operations.
Russia has been more outspoken recently about these strikes. Another Israeli airstrike was interdicted by Syrian air defense, Moscow said on July 24. Russia has indicated that 22 of the 24 missiles fired at Syria on Friday were shot down.
Moscow has also been increasingly vocal in its opposition to the strikes. In November 2019, Russia also opened up about alleged Israeli airstrikes in Syria, claiming that Israel had even overflown Jordan.
“Our air defense responded to the missiles and shot most of them down,” a Syrian air-defense source said after Friday’s incident.
Syrian air defenses, which consists of S-200s, Pantir 22 and other systems, have been known to fire wildly in the past.
Russia has said it might provide Syria better S-300s after a Syrian S-200 shot down a Russian IL-20 plane in September 2018. The Syrians claimed they were shooting at Israeli warplanes but missed and killed Russians, causing an international incident.
A Syrian S-200 missile flew over Jordan in March 2017, activating Israel’s Arrow air defense. In July 2020, a Syrian air-defense missile allegedly fell near Kafr Asad, Jordan. This January, a similar incident allegedly happened near Ajloun, Jordan.
In July 2019, a Syrian air-defense missile flew all the way to Northern Cyprus. Another such missile flew deep into southern Israel this April, triggering sirens near Dimona.
If we look at the background of these stray missiles, it appears clear that they are increasing as Syrian air defense apparently attempts to more robustly defend Syria.
The first major incident was in March 2017. In 2018, Syria shot down the Russian airplane. Then there was the 2019 incident in Cyprus. In 2020, there may have been another incident in Jordan, and in 2021, there have been several incidents.
Are Syrian missiles being used more regularly, and are they using new guidance, supplies or radar? Or are they purposely firing them at targets that are farther away?
Modern air-to-surface missiles can be fired from the standoff, meaning that in many cases, airstrikes are not carried out by aircraft over a target, but rather missiles are launched from 100 km. or even farther away. That means air defenses may be triggered at longer ranges as well.
But there are questions because Syria claims it is firing at missiles and downing them. If so, why are its air-defense missiles flying so far away? Are they just stray missiles that continue on their track because they don’t find a target?
In the absence of knowledge about Syrian air-defense strategy and its precise capabilities, it may not be possible to know. What is known is that Syrian air defense apparently continues to fire wildly at what it thinks are incoming missiles and enemy planes.