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Daraa, an impoverished city surrounded by agricultural areas in southern Syria, became the cradle of the Syrian revolution in 2011. A decade later, it is still fighting against the oppressive regime and protesting negligence, poverty and violence, while Syrian President Bashar Assad is still trying to break its back. The fighting and the failure of the cease-fire agreement brokered a few years ago by Russia might produce serious destabilization in southern Syria and cause damage to regional security.
The end of federalism in Daraa?
In 2018, Russia, which had intervened in the Syrian civil war three years earlier and secured a military victory for Assad, was working hard to achieve a reconciliation agreement between Daraa’s rebels and the Syrian regime. While other rebel-held cities and areas were pounded from the air and bathed in blood, Daraa was an exception, since the agreement stipulated that the rebels would be allowed to keep control over Daraa al-Bilad (the Old City of Daraa and a few additional neighborhoods) and would not be deported to Idlib, the only rebel-held province in northeastern Syria.
“At that time Russia was definitely acting against the wishes of Bashar Assad, who believed that regime control should also be established in Daraa. But given the strategic position of Daraa, in close vicinity to the Israeli and Jordanian borders, Russia promoted the reconciliation agreement with the rebels in order to keep pro-Iranian elements away from Daraa,” Kirill Semenov, an expert on political and military issues in the Middle East with the Russian International Affairs Council, told The Media Line.
The understanding that was reached between the sides was based on the promise to integrate the rebel factions inside the Syrian 8th Brigade, a subdivision of the Russian-influenced Fifth Corps, he said.
By securing an agreement in Daraa that basically allowed for self-rule in the area, Moscow also aimed to promote federalism as a tool for stabilization in Syria. This idea was first proposed by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov in 2016.
“If as a result of talks, consultations and discussions on Syria’s future state order … they come to an opinion that namely this [federal] model will work to serve the task of preserving Syria as a united, secular, independent and sovereign nation, then who will object to this?” Ryabkov said at the time.
Many things have gone wrong since the agreement was signed in 2018, as they often do in Syria. Some of the rebel factions declined to “reconcile with the regime” and continued with the kidnappings and the killings, while those that were bound by the agreement were not integrated into the 8th Brigade or the Fifth Corps because of Assad’s objections. The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights has documented over 1,100 incidents that involved weapons since June 2019; over 750 people, including 218 civilians, died in these incidents.
The battle over Iran’s presence in southern Syria
The million-strong Sunni population in the area did not conceal its rejection of Assad’s regime, while the regime never invested funds in this impoverished part of the country, in order to step up the economic pressure. In addition, many locals have reported over the years about the efforts of pro-Iranian elements – mainly Hizbullah as well as other Shia militias – to buy land and houses in the area and to promote Shiism.
“A few months ago, some members of my family in the village of Tafas were approached by men who belonged to one of the pro-Iranian militias. They offered the youngsters to join them and promised good pay, a few hundred dollars a month. Our people do not have any employment opportunities; unemployment is soaring. So, some youths are tempted to join these factions and some of them even convert and become Shia,” Jamal al-Khourani, a Syrian refugee who lives in Berlin, told The Media Line.
His story is corroborated by many other residents of the Daraa region, who testify to the increasing efforts by pro-Iranian elements to take over control of land, homes and souls.
Things finally exploded after the presidential elections in May 2021. “The people of Daraa rejected these elections and were very loud about that; they boycotted the elections. The regime didn’t forgive this behavior and decided that since the agreement produced by Russia was limited in time, it had every right to make its move and take back control over Daraa,” said Semenov.
A few weeks ago, the regime began to blockade Daraa and attempted to take over rebel-held areas in the city. The population had to struggle with hunger and a lack of medicine and potable water. Then the local militias kidnapped a few dozen Syrian soldiers, and during the last nearly two weeks the Syrian army has been brutally attacking Daraa. Attempts to achieve a renewed cease-fire have so far failed.
For the regime, Daraa is important because it has become a symbol of the Syrian revolution. Also, Daraa today is perhaps the only area where Assad can display power without risking serious confrontation with Turkey or the US.
The Iranians and their proxies have never abandoned their grand plan to establish a presence in southern Syria, close to the border with Israel. If Russia gives up Daraa, it might suffer reputational damage in Syria and a blow to its strategic interests, since takeover of the city by Syrian government forces and pro-Iranian militias would create a new reality in the region.
One possible consequence might be a change in Israeli military strategy toward the developments in southern Syria that would further complicate the situation and likely put increased strain on Russian-Syrian relations.
Ten years after the revolution in Syria began, Daraa has become a morass of myriad entangled regional and international interests and ambitions, all while the bloodshed continues.