Voices from the Arab press: Iran and Israel: Is the denial game over?

Iran and Israel: Is the denial game over?

Asharq Al-Awsat, London, April 5

The recent influx of body bags from Damascus has reignited a crucial question in Tehran’s political circles: “Will things be different this time?” These bags carried the remains of 13 Iranian diplomats and military officers, among them two senior commanders from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi and Gen. Mohammad Hadi Haji Rahimi. They fell victim to an Israeli airstrike on a supposed consular building in Syria, adding to a series of similar attacks targeting Iranian officers, as well as Lebanese, Iraqi, Syrian, Pakistani, and Afghan mercenaries within Syria.

The trend of these attacks has been escalating since 2015 and reached its pinnacle in 2020. While official figures from Iran estimate around 5,000 casualties, specific numbers regarding Iranian officers and mercenaries assassinated to date remain undisclosed. Initially, Tehran manipulated the issue of body bags from Syria for propaganda, organizing grand processions in honor of the fallen. As losses mounted, the propaganda angle waned, and burials became subdued. This shift can be attributed, in part, to the influence of the late Gen. Qasem Soleimani, who aimed to avoid direct conflicts with Israel or the US, even hinting at establishing communication channels with the Israelis through figures like Gen. David Petraeus, the former director of the Central Intelligence Agency. 

However, recent events suggest a departure from this delicate equilibrium. Israel’s open acknowledgment of its punitive assault on Iran marks a crucial shift. For the first time, Israel targeted a building bearing Iran’s official flag, breaking from prior strikes on bases and facilities housing Iranian personnel in Syria. This new dynamic complicates Tehran’s ability to deflect responsibility, as these strikes now directly affect Iranian diplomatic installments. Amid mounting calls for retaliation from Iranian officials and the populace, Iran’s supreme leader faces a challenging dilemma. The breach of the unspoken agreement between the involved parties heightens pressure on Tehran to respond decisively. With the imminent demands for revenge, [Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei finds himself at a crossroads, torn between upholding strategic patience and delivering a crushing response. The outcome of this delicate situation holds significant implications for future actions and the fragile balance of power in the region. – Amir Taheri

Israel’s service to the Palestinian cause

Al-Ahram, Egypt, April 5

Israeli policies have inadvertently shed light on the Palestinian struggle in recent months, showcasing undeniable evidence of the Israeli army’s heinous crimes against innocent civilians. Through audio and video recordings, the world has witnessed atrocities such as the killing of children, blocking access to essential supplies, and targeting hospitals. This stark reality has debunked Israel’s self-proclaimed image as a modern democratic state, revealing the underlying racism within its leadership. These revelations have surpassed any previous efforts by Palestinians to bring attention to their plight since the conflict with Zionist groups predating the establishment of Israel. 

As a result, Israel’s close allies may now reconsider their support, not because they were unaware of the war crimes or racism, but because Israel has lost its ability to conceal its actions from the world. The once formidable façade has crumbled, leaving Israel’s friends vulnerable to scrutiny on the world stage. In addition to exposing Israel’s true nature, recent events have also highlighted the incompetence of its intelligence agencies. The unexpected Hamas strike on Oct. 7 caught Israeli authorities off guard, revealing a lack of foresight and strategic planning. The notion of Israel’s “invincible army” has been shattered, rendering it a subject of ridicule rather than fear among Palestinians. Israel’s oppressive tactics, though brutal, have clearly failed to achieve their intended goals. 

The rising Palestinian generation now views the Israeli army not as a force to be reckoned with but as a tool for destruction and intimidation that ultimately falls short of its objectives. This shift in perception marks a significant turning point in the ongoing conflict, underscoring the need for a reevaluation of Israel’s actions and policies. – Ahmed Abdel-Tawwab

Hamas thrives on chaos and discord

Okaz, Saudi Arabia, April 4

I was not surprised at all by the crude and direct incitement orchestrated by the leaders of the Hamas movement against the Jordanian public. Their actions sought to destabilize the region, throwing it into the fiery chaos that had ignited in the Gaza Strip following their ill-advised endeavor on Oct. 7 under the banner of [Operation] al-Aqsa Flood. The catastrophic consequences we witness today are a direct result of their actions. My lack of surprise at Hamas’s conduct arises from my firm conviction and informed understanding of the Muslim Brotherhood and its operating mechanisms. The Brotherhood’s reckless agenda places human safety and security as secondary concerns, utilizing strong religious emotions to manipulate public sentiment. Hamas’s demagogic discourse, driven by unbridled emotion and inverted reality, often leads to disastrous outcomes. 

The ongoing humanitarian and military crisis in the Gaza Strip was hoped to be a turning point, a lesson learned, and an opportunity for self-reflection. However, Hamas failed to heed the disastrous results of their actions, paving the way for the Israeli occupier to further suppress the Palestinian cause. By spreading incendiary rhetoric, Hamas directly aimed to destabilize neighboring countries, particularly Jordan, inciting chaos and disregarding sovereignty. Hamas leader Mohammed Deif’s audacious incitement of Jordanians to revolt shows the depth of Hamas’ manipulative tactics. Their inflammatory narrative only fuels the fire of conflict, using ordinary people as pawns in a larger game. Hamas portrays the war against Israel as a battle of enthusiasm and emotion rather than strategic planning, undermining the true complexities of the conflict. This demagoguery serves only as a political lesson to those who fail to grasp reality or evaluate situations with a clear mind. Hamas must acknowledge the consequences of their actions and the misguided adventures they undertake. By targeting neighboring countries and inciting the masses, Hamas only drives the region further into turmoil. 

The motivations behind Hamas’s incitement must be scrutinized, particularly considering the timing of their actions. Khaled Mashal’s call for a battle of Al-Aqsa Flood and subsequent visit to Iran reveal a larger agenda at play. Hamas’s alignment with Iranian interests and the Safavid agenda raise concerns about their true intentions and loyalties. If Hamas truly cared for the Palestinian cause, it would hold Iran and other supporters accountable for their promises and hollow threats. The Brotherhood’s agenda thrives on chaos and discord, seeking to subvert religious texts for their own gain. The consequences of power in the hands of groups like the Brotherhood are evident in the plight of Sudan today, a cautionary tale of the destruction wrought by unchecked extremism. – Najeeb Yaman

Iranian response will come – but may be delayed

Nida Al Watan, Lebanon, April 4

American officials are cautiously anticipating Iran’s response to Israel’s recent strike on the Iranian Consulate in Damascus. They expect Iran to refrain from targeting American forces, as a result of the decision to cease attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria following a warning from Washington issued last February. The warning was communicated to Tehran during talks in Oman, with the threat of potential retaliation within Iran itself. Reuters reported on directives from Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani to militias, including Hezbollah, to avoid escalating tensions. President Joe Biden’s administration believes the warning remains in effect, despite Iranian accusations against the US regarding the consulate bombing. Washington quickly distanced itself from the Israeli strike, denying prior knowledge or involvement. Similarly, Tehran denied any connection to Hamas’ attack on Israel in October. These incidents highlight a complex dance between the two countries, both eager to avoid direct conflict. The strikes can be seen as part of a nuanced power play, with each side leveraging proxies and allies to advance their interests. The US relies on Israel and intelligence networks to exert influence, while Iran supports militias in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen. The Damascus consulate strike, while seen as an indirect assault on Iran, is unlikely to provoke direct retaliation against America. Various theaters provide potential battlegrounds between Iran and Israel, from Iraq to Syria to Lebanon. However, the intricate web of alliances and geopolitical considerations may prevent direct confrontations. Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen could be conduits for retaliation, but the overall strategy remains shrouded in secrecy and intricate planning. Ultimately, revenge by the Revolutionary Guards is a complex calculus. The possibility of delayed retaliation remains, as Iran carefully weighs its options in response to recent provocations. – Walid Shaqir 

Translated by Asaf Zilberfarb.