Media Control, in partnership with BearingPoint, announced a tool called Demandsens that can create precise sales forecasts using machine learning algorithms "long before the sales actually take place," according to Die Zeit. The tool is intended to predict sales figures for new books as concretely as possible for publishers, retailers, and industry representatives.
"This AI-based sales forecast will open completely new perspectives for the book market," said Ulrike Altig, Managing Director of Media Control, according to Die Zeit. She explained that Demandsens works with data on sales, returns, pre-orders, master data such as author and title, keywords provided by publishers, reading motives, and insights from social media analyses. "All these data together, currently five billion data points, which are processed in 1.3 seconds, provide the basis for AI forecasting," Altig stated.
The tool is expected to be available in the first quarter of 2025. Consumers will not be able to use Demandsens; it is a business tool intended for publishers, retailers, and industry representatives. "Use by public persons or consumers is currently not planned," Altig said.
Media Control uses data from more than 9,000 sales locations and claims to have the largest book trade panel in the German-speaking area, with a market coverage of 88 percent. This data is the basis for the German book charts, on which the Börsenblatt bestseller lists are based.
In a test phase, the tool achieved an average accuracy of 82 percent, and for individual product groups, accuracy was between 95 and 99 percent, according to Die Zeit. "What we can emphasize is that Media Control has a unique data foundation that is optimally combined with modern AI algorithms to achieve the best forecasting results," Altig noted.
The announcement of Demandsens has caused a stir in the book market. Reactions from the industry are cautious. Suhrkamp Verlag stated that they do not yet know the software in detail. A spokesperson for the bookseller Hugendubel said they are currently not planning to use Demandsens, according to Die Zeit. Other publishing houses emphasize that they have their own applications to create forecasts.
"There is no reason for concern regarding the use of AI in the book industry," said Christoph Bläsi from the University of Mainz, according to Die Zeit. He sees advantages in AI regarding sustainability. The number of returns is likely to decrease if booksellers can accurately predict whether to sell 10 or 20 copies. "AI could help to see more quickly which trends are emerging in social networks," Bläsi added.
However, some see the diversity in the book market as being in danger due to the new AI tool. Small publishers could be put under pressure, and less well-known authors may have to abandon their career plans, according to Die Zeit. "Independent publishers could get into trouble due to the new AI tool," Bläsi warned.
Altig emphasized that Media Control is only concerned with efficiency and data, not with content. "It is the publishers' goal to continually generate new readers and not just focus on bestsellers, but to offer a variety," she stated. "Publishers can supplement the Demandsens forecasts with their own knowledge."
In cooperation with TikTok, Media Control monthly determines a ranking of the 20 most successfully discussed book titles on the platform under the hashtag #BookTok, and this knowledge contributes to Demandsens.
This article was written in collaboration with generative AI company Alchemiq