Afghanistan is not a gigantic fiasco simply because we Westerners withdrew. We couldn’t stay there forever. But it is indeed one of epic proportions because our retreat typifies a much bigger flop, called the “War on Terror.” Surely, it’s not all bad. Twenty years after 9/11, the US has taken out Osama bin Laden; has seriously diminished al Qaeda’s capabilities to amass funds; has carried out dozens of high-profile targeted killings; and, most importantly, has considerably diminished chances for other 9/11s taking place on American soil. These objectives were successfully met.
If we look at the wider picture, however, we failed. Our initial strategy – if we had one in the first place – displayed more realistic goals. So, what went wrong? Initial premises quickly turned into borderless war on al Qaeda and alike, toppling hostile governments, imposing democracy, doing peacekeeping, state building, and training of local forces. Dragged into Afghan and Iraqi quagmires, we panicked. At that point, as Audrey Cronin argues, we went back to what we know best: military tactics. Drone campaigns, legally questionable targeted killings, and countless accusations of human rights abuse did the rest, though.
After 20 years, we can say results have mostly been disastrous. Wanting to prevent 9/11s, we destabilized entire countries – causing dozens of 9/11s. And, in doing so, we weren’t that effective either. We combated terrorism only to see Jihadist groups around the globe thrive. Two decades later, al Qaeda still permeates the Sahel, the Arabia Peninsula, and Asia. Boko Haram and al Shabab continue to bring havoc to multiple African countries. ISIS has even managed to establish its own Caliphate while terrorizing London, Paris, and Brussels. Even our battle for hearts and minds scored low. Anti-Western sentiment swelled, as the image of the West and America being pillars of democratic values plummeted.
Speaking of which, things at home have also deteriorated. In the name of security, counterterrorist laws have often trumped civil rights – with governments and private companies spying on their citizens. Entire communities, mainly Muslim, have become suspect, suffering from ethnic profiling and marginalization. Concurrently, fear of terrorism facilitated the rise of populism across many nations, accruing social division. In some cases, poisonous narratives led to right-wing terrorism, which has become a vital threat to US national security. With polarization, racism, and domestic terrorism rising, it became clear the war on terror had taken its toll back at home too.
Within this frame, Afghanistan is nothing but the mirror reflecting our failure. We started off hunting for Osama bin Laden, but ended up imposing our views to a whole country. Without a clear plan, we poured in resources and personnel. Trillions later, corruption remained rampant, local administrations ruled poorly, and resentment grew. In the end, the Taliban won and an FBI most-wanted terrorist is the country’s minister of internal affairs. With al Qaeda and ISIS-K still there, some fear Afghanistan might revert to being a terrorist haven or inspire acts of terrorism in the West. As the latter hastily evacuated its citizens, other regional players, including China, Russia, and Iran, are likely to fill the void.
And yet, our biggest fault is perhaps related to our alleged values. We fight terrorism because we cannot stand political violence jeopardizing democracy and basic freedoms. But in Afghanistan we got this all wrong. Not only did we misunderstand the complex nature of the country and its history; we (questionably) tried imposing democracy, grew disappointed as we realized it didn’t work, and then left. We left. While we did rescue many, we left behind thousands to their destiny. Now, how can we make sure gender and minority rights are protected in a Taliban-ruled Afghanistan? How credible can we be? Which message are we sending? Can we walk out on our values if things go wrong? Do we even know what our values are anymore – have we ever had values?
I still firmly believe the West and its allies should continue to fight terrorism. If we put our minds together, we can make things better. In addition to much needed strategic thinking, we must interrogate ourselves as to who we really are. “Know the enemy, know yourself”, would say Sun Tzu. But I am afraid this can only be achieved through honest and painful soul-searching. Are we ready for this?
The writer is a teaching fellow in ‘Challenges to the International Order’ Defence Studies Department at King’s College London.