The burning question for observers of American affairs right now is about the repercussions of E. Jean Carroll, a 79-year-old woman, successfully substantiating a sexual assault incident involving former president Donald Trump and holding him legally accountable for his actions. The court sided with her and awarded her $5 million (NIS 18.3 m.) in compensation, a courageous move considering she confronted someone who was once an influential global figure and could regain that status, as The Guardian put it.
This legal triumph has sparked extensive debates among experts and specialists regarding its impact on Trump’s chances in the upcoming presidential race. However, many believe that the success of this legal action might entice others to initiate new legal battles against Trump, particularly concerning allegations of sexual harassment. American media reports suggest that these allegations represent a substantial record for the former president, who also happens to be the top contender for succeeding President Joe Biden.
Opinion polls conducted after the court’s ruling indicated that female voters, contrary to expectations, haven’t been significantly swayed by the decision, as Trump’s support among them has actually increased compared to 2016 and 2020. This serves as an initial indication that Trump’s prospects of securing the Republican nomination and winning another presidential term remain strong and unaffected.
The condemnation verdict delivered by the American jury, which Trump labeled as a disgrace, presents a notable electoral challenge, despite being a civil rather than criminal responsibility. Some GOP members of Congress even view the verdict as a hurdle to Trump’s return to the White House.
Two sides of the same coin
On the flip side, there is ample evidence to indicate that the verdict might not pose a significant roadblock to the voting behavior of a man accustomed to winning such political gambles and having a wide electoral base that isn’t particularly concerned with his actions and words. Instead, it pays more attention to his positions and perspectives on various issues pertaining to American affairs.
In my view, the only quandary arising from the verdict is an ethical dilemma among some seasoned Republicans. These individuals believe that the party requires leadership that possesses eligibility and the ability to unite the party and overcome its current internal divisions. Moreover, party leaders see a significant opportunity in Biden’s potential defeat, but it necessitates a formidable competitor whom Democrats find challenging to contest and launch media campaigns against.
Biden, who has officially announced his candidacy for a second presidential term, kicked off his campaign with the slogan “Let’s Get the Job Done.” He is the oldest candidate vying for the White House, at 80 years old, and doesn’t appear convincing to a large segment of the American people, even among fellow Democrats.
He faces a vulnerability linked to his age, further amplified by his numerous verbal slips and stumbles since assuming his current position. This suggests that the next four years will be exceedingly challenging, considering his health condition is not commensurate with the escalating global challenges confronting American influence.
It will also be arduous for him to exert the necessary effort to overcome the deep divisions that American society has experienced since the previous presidential election. Therefore, his path to securing a second presidential term doesn’t seem as straightforward as it was for previous presidents. Re-electing a president for a second term is not guaranteed, as it was for his predecessors, regardless of being Democrat or Republican.
Trump’s challenge and his insistence on participating in the upcoming presidential race will serve as a catalyst to rally Democrats behind Biden, continuing the political triumph they achieved in last year’s unexpected midterm elections. However, on the flip side, the current president’s prospects appear largely contingent on the domestic economic situation on one hand and the outcome of the ongoing war in Ukraine on the other.
Particularly since the United States has allocated billions of dollars to Kyiv, and if the desired American objectives are not met in that conflict, Biden’s image as an effective leader for his nation will be completely undermined.
All possibilities remain open as the issues that haunt Trump persist. There is a roster of unresolved legal cases, but the evidence suggests that they won’t be resolved through investigations.
Trump’s campaign is adept at skillfully leveraging them in their propaganda, as generous donations to his campaign continue pouring in despite the recent charges brought against him. The allegations are portrayed as political persecution against the former president, which amplifies the enthusiasm of his supporters.
The truth of the matter is that the US standing in the global system will suffer greatly in the upcoming phase, regardless of whether Biden manages to secure a second presidential term or Trump returns to power. In either scenario, Washington will be unable to effectively tackle the mounting international strategic challenges.
This may stem from the former’s weakened capacity to safeguard his country’s interests, whether due to age-related decline or other factors tied to his personality and leadership qualifications. It could also be attributed to the controversies surrounding the latter’s positions, policies and orientations.
The writer is a UAE political analyst and a former Federal National Council candidate.