Like capitals all around the globe, Jerusalem is carefully monitoring the dizzying developments in Russia.
The prospect of a coup or civil war there looms like a geopolitical earthquake that would create far-reaching aftershocks.
While at this point it seems that Moscow has found a way out of the crisis, with Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the rebellious Russian mercenary Wagner army, agreeing to leave the country, this may be the foreshock of an impending seismic shift.
Putin's waning power
One thing is certain: Russian President Vladimir Putin’s position is not as unshakable as previously believed. Prigozhin’s aborted action against the Russian military unveiled deep dissatisfaction inside Russia over Putin’s disastrous Ukrainian adventure. If this dissatisfaction does not fully boil over this time, it might do so in the not-too-distant future.
Israel needs to be prepared when and if that happens, for the repercussions will reverberate here.
Those ramifications will affect Israel in several ways.
First, internal instability in Russia is likely to impact its policies in Syria. Even though Moscow has drawn down its presence in Syria due to the Ukrainian war, it still has a sizable presence inside Israel’s northern neighbor and wields substantial influence there.
The impact on Syria and Israel
Internal strife in Russia would likely lead to a further reduction of forces in Syria – the Wagner Group also has forces there – that will create a vacuum.
In 2015, Russia filled a void left by America’s Mideast retreat initiated by president Barack Obama and continued under his successor, Donald Trump. A Russian pullout from Syria now will create another vacuum, giving Iran, which has long sought a foothold to threaten Israel, an opportunity that it will undoubtedly try to exploit.
In this scenario, Jerusalem will have to decide how far it wants to go to prevent Iran from creating another front, besides its Hezbollah stronghold in southern Lebanon, from which to challenge Israel.
Secondly, developments in Russia will have a big impact on Iran, which views Russia as its global protector.
Iran's next steps in a weakened Russia
If Iran perceives a weakened Russia and doubts its reliability under Putin’s leadership, it will seek alternative allies – first and foremost, China. Israel, together with the United States and Europe, should be drawing up plans to incentivize China to refrain from extending a lifeline to Iran. A weakened Russia means a weakened Iran – it is in the West’s interests to ensure that no one steps in to deflect this blow to Iranian interests.
And, finally, there is a Jewish angle. With some 145,000 “core” Jews in Russia, and another estimated 500,000 descendants of Jews who are eligible for aliyah under the Law of Return, Israel must be ready with plans to facilitate the swift departure of those interested in emigrating.
Israel's role amidst Russian instability
This task has become more complex, as Russia suspended Jewish Agency operations last year in response to Jerusalem’s increased diplomatic support for Ukraine.
Additionally, in April Israel canceled a one-stop, fast-track immigration process for those eligible to immigrate from Russia and Belarus while maintaining that option for those immigrating from Ukraine.
There has been a surge of immigration from Russia and Ukraine since Russia launched its war against Ukraine in February last year. In 2022, Israel absorbed approximately 70,000 new immigrants, a number that hasn’t been reached in the previous 23 years. More than half those immigrants came from Russia (37,364), with another 14,680 arriving from Ukraine.
While the pace of immigration from Russia kept up in the first quarter of this year, with 10,203 immigrants, only 538 immigrants arrived from Ukraine. The large numbers from Russia underscore that many Jews there feel insecure and are looking for a way out.
Given the recent developments in Russia, which are likely to heighten this sense of insecurity, Jerusalem should be working on ways to ensure that those eligible for aliyah and desirous to leave Russia can do so. It can start by reinstating the streamlined fast-track procedure.
With the precarious situation in Russia, Israel must be able to promptly process and handle a potential wave of immigrants. Preparedness and responsiveness will be key in a time of crisis in Russia – and the events this weekend indicate that such a crisis may not be far off.