As Israel reels from Hamas’ unprecedented terror attack, countless analysts have attempted, and failed, to make sense of the unspeakable violence.
For Dr. Jonathan Schanzer, Senior Vice President of Research at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, the events of this week were shocking but not out of character for Hamas.
Schanzer has literally written the book on Hamas and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. His most recent book, Gaza Conflict 2021: Hamas, Israel and Eleven Days of War, covered the 2021 war with Hamas, and he is one of the world’s foremost experts on the terrorist organization.
Just hours after the invasion, Schanzer sat down with IsraelCast host Steven Shalowitz to discuss the ongoing war, Israel’s potential responses, and how the stakes are much higher than we think.
“I think the long and short of it is the Israelis were taken by surprise,” he said. “The Israelis believed Hamas was content with the status quo, and I suspect there will be some kind of commission that looks into this at some point soon.”
Schanzer also talked about the importance of Hamas receiving outside help for the terror attack. “A lot of what we saw yesterday was way too coordinated for Hamas to do on its own,” he said. “Hamas receives a huge amount of funding, training, weaponry, instruction, technology from the Islamic Republic of Iran. This is part of a proxy strategy that Iran has deployed around Israel since the 1980s.”
He then discussed how the attack might affect Israel’s slowly warming relationships with other Arab countries, particularly Saudi Arabia.
“The Israelis have been eating Iran’s lunch, and this has absolutely encouraged the Arab world to slowly align themselves with Israel,” he said. “Yesterday showed that Israel has a soft underbelly of sorts, it showed some Israeli weakness. And I think this might throw Saudi Arabia’s calculus into doubt.”
Schanzer noted that Israel is likely to respond, both for internal security and as a message to the world. “It’s not just that they need to regain their footing for the security of their own people, but there’s a lot more at stake. The future of the region, one could argue, is also at stake here, and I think Israel is keenly aware of that.”
However, he added that despite Hamas striking first, and with striking brutality, Israel will still be heavily scrutinized for its response. “Israel’s going to need to be careful about shedding innocent blood,” he said. “Of course, Israel always has to be careful with this, you don’t want to see collateral damage, but the longer and more horrific the photos and the videos might be, the more difficult it will be for Saudi Arabia to convince its population that this is an ally that they should seek out. So, Israel is in this impossible position where it needs to project strength, but not too much strength, yet enough strength.”
He also talked about the fundamentalist nature of Hamas, noting the extreme nationalism, Islamism, and antisemitism in its founding document. Since Hamas took over the Gaza region, Gaza citizens have suffered under their rule.
“People like to conflate the people of Gaza with Hamas, and you have to remember that Hamas is an Iran-backed terrorist organization that has horrific attacks and bloodshed on their record,” he said. “And the people of Gaza – look, it’s a mixed bag. There are, of course, thousands of people that support the Hamas movement, and there are tens of thousands of people that probably would like nothing more than for all of this to go away.”
Schanzer then speculated on the future of Gaza, noting that while Israeli leaders have no interest in taking back Gaza, they have to keep all options open, especially as the threat of Hamas from the Gaza region increases. But he also noted that allocating the type of resources necessary for that could leave them exposed in other regions.
He also brought up another potential problem – that Hamas is likely expecting them to invade. “They knew it was daring Israel to cross over into the Gaza Strip and for the IDF to wage a ground war,” he said. “And the question is what awaits if and when they do, and Bibi must be aware of the risks.”
Schanzer finished by pointing out how high the stakes are – that Israel getting hurt harms the world as well. “For the countries that are fence sitters or have been traditionally ambivalent, this is not only about Israel,” he said. “This is about a broader trend that we’re seeing around the world that I think is quite dangerous – the erosion of what has built and an attempt to redesign the world structure.
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