Who will stop the catastrophe that was planned in Tehran involving Palestinian terrorist organizations? Will everyone surrender themselves to the disastrous scenario that is unfolding in the Middle East? Fury and anger are spreading across Israel and the region.
Now, we must pay attention to what is behind the Iranian threat of intervention in the ongoing war in Gaza.
This threat appears to be a warning of a major regional strategic event following media reports concerning the US restriction of Iran’s access to $6 billion which is in restricted accounts in Qatar. Reports suggest that these accounts were suspended after the bloody Hamas terrorist attack on Israel.
These funds had been made available as part of the recent prisoner exchange deal in which five Iranian-Americans, detained by Tehran, were released. If the report of the American move to restrict access to these funds is correct, we will be faced with new facts in this complex regional crisis, as each party seeks to impose its conditions, and redraw the rules of the game in the new Middle Eastern order, according to its own goals and strategic interests.
It is certain that Iran will not be satisfied with its marginalization and isolation within the framework of a regional system in which peace and cooperation prevail between Israel and its Arab neighbors. Further, Iran will also not be satisfied with its GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) neighbors’ rapprochement with Israel, within the framework of a possible expansion of peace agreements to include Saudi Arabia, the most influential Gulf, Arab, and Islamic country.
At the present time, if we add to that the Iranian regime’s perception of the fragility of the situation and the erosion of American influence in the Middle East and globally, as well as with the increasing influence of China and Russia in the region, then we can expect all of this to be reflected in the current events in Gaza, which have Iran’s fingerprints all over them.
Is Iran satisfied with the message it sent through the Palestinian organizations and their terrorist agents in the Arab region? That depends on what the Iranian side is thinking and its strategic calculations.
Currently, the Middle East stands on the threshold of a new historical phase; what comes after the Hamas terrorist attack on Israel will not be what it was before. Israel will most likely not continue to live amid this geographical siege by Iranian agents.
Iran and its regional arms – which the Iranian regime waves whenever an opportunity arises – as well as the other Arab countries, no longer have much room for maneuver, either politically or diplomatically.
Iran stirs up chaos in Gaza, which will spill to the Middle East and beyond
Nevertheless, Iran now sees itself as a main player in the Gaza crisis and seeks to whip up anti-Israel sentiment among the Arab and Islamic people.
All of this creates a deep state of instability with far-reaching repercussions which will not be limited to Gaza or the Middle East, but rather, the whole world. Terrorist and extremist organizations will carry out similar atrocities, using October 7 as a cover to commit their despicable crimes under the pretext of defending the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people.
HAMAS MADE a fatal and devastating strategic mistake when it believed the leaders of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard who promised to stand with them against Israel, and attack from the north. This explains the statements of the Hamas leaders immediately after the attack on Israel that this battle would extend from Palestine abroad.
The Iranian foreign minister also revealed part of this plan in statements made in Beirut, in which he indicated the possibility of opening this front. Judging by its movements in Iraq and Lebanon, it would appear that Iran might be prepared to attack Israel from the north. However, as any regional specialist will attest, the Iranian regime will not adopt any course – including going to war with Israel and the US – unless it is consistent with its own interests.
Therefore, it is difficult to predict whether Tehran will take any further steps to keep its promises to Hamas, at least for the time being, not least because the US is not in a position to carry out a ground invasion or overthrow a regime (Iran) that still meets its strategic needs.
Likewise, the US no longer has the bold impulse it once had under former president Donald Trump, who neutralized the most important pawn of the Iranian regime, General Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guard. If events develop, however, the US may be forced to carry out specific operations that do not affect the safety or stability of the Iranian regime.
Returning to Iran, the Iranian plan is a revenge plan against Israel par excellence. It is not directed solely against Israel, but also includes the Biden administration which now hangs in the balance, having become mired in two crises; one in Ukraine, the other the Middle East.
The US provides unlimited military and political support to Israel, because it realizes that this crisis may affect the chances of President Joe Biden obtaining a second presidential term. This is because, the issue not only affects Israel and the security of its people, but also has major repercussions on energy prices, global security, and stability, which subsequently affects the American economy and its interests in both the region and the world.
No one knows exactly what Iran is thinking in terms of increasing support for Hamas. Therefore we, as observers, must expect further military escalation, that may plunge the entire region into an unprecedented state of chaos and turmoil, into which the US will become further embroiled if it does not hurry up and do what is necessary.
The writer is a UAE political analyst and former Federal National Council candidate.