The Houthi militia’s threats to target commercial ships in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait are no longer mere propaganda or empty statements, after they were actually implemented, and became a reality amid a global response of silence, hesitation, and verbal condemnations.
What the movement’s leader Abdul-Malik Al-Houthi and his supporters realize is that there is a state of international inability to confront these practices, which do not affect the interests of a specific party, but rather represent an actual threat that is increasing at an accelerating pace to damage the global trade movement – which is still suffering from the consequences of the Corona epidemic and the Ukraine crisis.
There is no shortage of threats to target trade movement in the Red Sea, where between 10% and 15% of global trade passes, in addition to the importance of the sea corridor for transporting more than five million barrels of oil per day heading to European countries and the United States of America.
This opens the door to a bad scenario, such as a shortage of supplies and related severe negative effects, such as high energy prices and other cascading economic consequences.
The threat to maritime transport movement through Bab al-Mandab to the Suez Canal is an extremely dangerous issue because it negatively affects transport, trade and the broader global economy, given the negative repercussions of these threats on the cost of shipping and ship insurance.
In addition to the impact on the economies of countries such as Egypt, whose revenues from the Suez Canal represent an important portion of its economy, we are dealing with a multilateral issue, and we cannot claim that these multidimensional impacts are absent or hidden from the awareness of the Houthi militias and their regional supporters and financiers. Rather, they are completely at the heart of their strategic calculations.
Houthis want to change the rules of the Middle East game
AS AN OBSERVER, I can confirm that one of the most prominent goals of Al-Houthi and his enablers, the policy planners in Tehran, is to exert maximum pressure on the parties concerned, whether Western or regional countries, for geopolitical motives – some of which are declared, such as sending aid to Gaza.
Others – and this is the most important – are hidden and relate to pressure on the West to enhance Iran’s position and its regional and international role as an indispensable player in the equations of security and stability.
Consequently, an attempt is made to change the rules of the game in the Middle East, and to end peace-building projects and normalize relations between Arabs and Israel once and for all in the later stages of the Gaza War.
There is no doubt that Iran is becoming increasingly concerned due to growing talk about the future of the Gaza Strip. This dialogue, whether officially circulating or being revealed through Western and Israeli media leaks – centers around new perceptions of the future of the Strip without the terrorist Hamas movement, which means the loss of Iran’s strategic dream of seizing control of the Palestinians and controlling their destiny through the terrorist Hamas movement.
Also, without a doubt, what also worries Iran is that the scenarios circulating in this regard are in parallel with continuing the normalization of relations between the Arab countries and Israel, and limiting the treatment of the Palestinian issue to what could be called the Arab-Israeli normalization box.
This means returning to the situation before the bloody attack on October 7, which was launched by the terrorist Hamas organization in coordination with, at the behest of, or under instructions from Iran.
Say whatever you want about it and call it whatever you want, but the facts have become clear to everyone with reason and insight.
Losing control of the Palestinian cause is terrifying for Iran
THIS TERRIFYING scenario for Iran represents an imminent danger to its overall investment and strategic planning, which began decades ago through what it calls the “Axis of Resistance,” especially since there is talk circulating about the fate of Lebanese-based Hezbollah, and a focus on confronting and putting an end to the party’s threat to Israel’s security.
Which means dismantling the network of Iranian arms, which is something that Tehran views with great seriousness and concern. This explains the change in the behavior of Iran regarding these arms by escalating their threats, whether in northern Israel or in Bab al-Mandab, and claiming that they are there to support Gaza, even though what is happening in the Strip did not begin last week, but rather more than two months ago.
Let us remember a very important fact, in my opinion, which is that the Houthi militias never resorted to threatening maritime navigation in the Red Sea during the height of the Yemeni crisis, and were content with targeting ships belonging to the Arab coalition countries led by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. They did not target the ships of any other country, even if they were headed to ports of the coalition countries.
This was when Al-Houthi wanted to attract international sympathy by claiming that he was a “victim” at a time when everyone realized that he was the one who ignited the war in Yemen, just as the terrorist Hamas ignited it in Gaza.
Therefore, the Houthi trend towards expanding the circle of conflict and increasing pressure on the international community is in itself a qualitatively different step and a strong indicator of an actual carrying out of Iran’s threats since the beginning of the conflict in Gaza, with the danger of expanding its scope to being a regional conflict.
Tehran realizes that compromising the interests of regional and international parties could drag them into conflict on other fronts, such as Yemen and Lebanon, which is a disastrous scenario whose paths and consequences cannot be predicted.
What is happening now is that the Houthi militia has raised its level of threats in a deliberate manner, after it targeted Israeli ships and was not sufficiently deterred since the United States restrained Israel, preventing it from responding so that the circle of war does not expand.
This is something that Israel may not want as well, for many reasons and considerations that there is no room to explain in detail here.
The Houthi militia has tended to target commercial ships belonging to other countries, and announced the targeting of any commercial ships heading to Israeli ports, regardless of their nationality, which in reality means an attempt to impose a partial naval blockade on Israel.
This also means that there is a complex test facing regional and international powers who are seeking to achieve security and stability in order to confront these practices, but could send wrong messages that might result in more and more chaos and unrest.
What confirms this is that the Pentagon demonstrated that the targeting of a commercial ship near Yemen was carried out by Somali militants, not Houthis, and there may be specific Houthi arrangements to use pirates to expand the targeting circle and spread chaos in this vital maritime region. This is the most dangerous point that should be taken into consideration – and it should be addressed strictly and firmly.
The writer is a UAE political analyst and former Federal National Council candidate.