The stormy weather that has buffeted much of Israel this week has been echoed by the blustery turmoil that has engulfed the country’s political and foreign policy spheres. On Sunday, a four-way meeting was held in Europe between CIA director Bill Burns, the head of Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency David Barnea, Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, and Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel, in an attempt to resolve the issues surrounding the conditions for an arrangement that would lead to the release of the hostages being held by Hamas. Reports indicate that the agreement would provide for a phased release of all Israeli hostages over a period of time in exchange for the release of a large number of Palestinian prisoners being held in Israel, along with a significant pause, or ceasefire, in the fighting.
The week also carried tones of anger and frustration near Gaza, as trucks carrying humanitarian supplies to the population in Gaza were blocked from entry into the Strip by hundreds of Israeli protestors, including family members of the hostages that are being held by Hamas. The protestors have demanded that assistance to Gaza be withheld until the remainder of the hostages have been freed. In addition, they maintain that between 60% and 70% of the essential supplies that arrive in Gaza are commandeered by Hamas forces. The blockades have taken place at several locations, including the Kerem Shalom Crossing into Gaza and the Nitzana Crossing between Israel and Egypt. Those in support of the blockade have cited Israeli Prime Minister Golda Meir’s refusal to allow supplies to reach the encircled Egyptian Third Army during the Yom Kippur War in 1973, until an agreement on an exchange of POWs was reached.
As a country that abides by international law, Israel enables humanitarian supplies such as food, water and medicine, intended for the civilian population, to enter the Gaza Strip. While withholding basic supplies would undoubtedly place added pressure on Hamas and its leaders, Israel understands the importance of providing necessary aid to civilians caught in the crossfire of war. In addition, Israel is under pressure from the international community, including the United States, to ensure that aid reaches the Gazan population. Prime Minister Netanyahu made it clear that Israel will continue to fulfill its international and moral obligations, despite pressure from the families and the fact that Hamas controls 60-70% of the essential supplies coming in.
Another source of stress and controversy that took place this week was a conference held Sunday night in Jerusalem, supporting Jewish resettlement of the 21 Gaza settlements that were evacuated in 2005. More than a dozen coalition MKs and eleven cabinet ministers attended the conference, including a minister from the ruling Likud party and ministers from the religious and extreme right-wing factions of the coalition.
Prime Minister Netanyahu, for his part, has stated repeatedly that Israel has no plans to reoccupy or resettle Gaza, apart from maintaining a military presence in the Strip to ensure Israel’s long-term security. With that, Netanyahu has to appease both sides of Israel’s wartime political map- the extreme right-wing faction headed by Ben Gvir and Smotrich, and the moderate faction headed by Gantz and Eisenkot. The former will keep his government in tact until the 4-year term of the current government comes to an end, granting him another three years of power, while the latter will enable Netanyahu to advance a historic normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia, a gamechanger deal and the ultimate triumph, which includes the pre-condition of a framework for a Palestinian State.
Netanyahu has managed to withstand pressure from Ben Gvir and Smotrich to support the resettlement of Gaza up until now, but the political pressure is mounting, and giving in to this pressure could result in significant damage to Israel on the international front.
According to a Channel 12 poll released this Tuesday, 51% of Israelis say they are opposed to Jewish resettlement in Gaza, while 38% are in favor, while many, including the families of the hostages, felt that the celebratory resettlement event was inappropriate and in bad taste.
The poll also asked Israelis if they would support a hostage deal that includes the release of 35 Israeli hostages in return for a 45-day pause in fighting and the freeing of thousands of Palestinian terrorists from Israeli prisons. The poll indicates that 50% oppose a deal under these conditions, while 35% are in favor, and the rest are undecided.
It is important to note that negotiations with Hamas through international third-party negotiators have not formally begun. Only once Hamas comes to the table, will we know the true framework of the hostage deal and the exact parameters of Israel’s proposal. With that, once a deal is reached, the images of Israelis being released from the hands of Hamas, coming home to their loved ones after months in captivity, will be so powerful that they will surely change the public opinion and garner support for the deal that freed them.
As indicated by the Ch. 12 poll and the recent public discourse, there are many in Israel – and not only those on the political right – who are opposed to a deal that will lead to the release of hundreds or thousands of terrorists and the cessation of the war, which many believe would lead to a permanent ceasefire. Speaking to students at a West Bank pre-military academy this week, Netanyahu pledged: “We will not remove the IDF from the Gaza Strip and we will not release thousands of terrorists”, going on to say that he is set on achieving “absolute victory”.
Finance Minister Smotrich said that the Religious Zionist Party opposes a two-month halt of fighting because it would allow Hamas to regroup and restore its rule. Even among the families of the hostages, there are those who are opposed to freeing Palestinian terrorists in exchange for the release of their family members. The Tikva Forum, made up of relatives of the hostages, supports the government’s use of military force to obtain the release of the hostages and is opposed to a deal that includes the release of terrorists with blood on their hands.
Another source of opposition to an open-ended arrangement will likely be the tens of thousands of IDF reservists, who are now coming home after months of fighting Hamas above and below ground. They have seen firsthand what Hamas has done, and many of them are undoubtedly against an extended stoppage of the fighting.
Yet, based on the lessons of history, apart from the ideological opposition to an agreement with Hamas, many Israelis are opposed to any deal that would result in the freeing of prisoners who would pose a significant security threat to Israel.
In 2011, Israel freed 1,027 security prisoners in exchange for the release of IDF Corporal Gilad Shalit, whom Hamas had captured in June 2006. Of the 1,027 prisoners, 280 were serving life sentences for carrying out terror attacks against Israel. By July 2015, Israeli sources had concluded that six Israelis had been killed by prisoners released in the Shalit agreement. But perhaps most significant is this: One of the most prominent names among those released in the 2011 prisoner exchange was none other than Yahya Sinwar, the primary architect of the October 7 massacre against Israel. Many Israelis are justifiably opposed to an agreement that will lead to murders and acts of terror against Israelis by those who have already been convicted of terrorist activity.
On the other hand, despite these concerns, a majority of Israelis want the government to do everything in its power to free the hostages, many of whom are old, infirm, and chronically ill.
When a ceasefire with Gaza is reached, this will likely end the escalation with Hezbollah which has been brewing along the Israel-Lebanon border since the onset of the war. As we’ve see in the week-long ceasefire that was part of the first major hostage release deal, Hassan Nasrallah would likely stop launching rockets at Israel once the fighting with Hamas is haulted.
It is not certain if Prime Minister Netanyahu will have a majority of support in his coalition for a hostage deal once the exact details are known, but we have seen from his decision to allow aid into Gaza that he can make difficult decisions when needed. Netanyahu has resolved complex strategic issues for Israel in the past, and if push comes to shove, it is likely that he will be able to reach an agreement despite the domestic pressure and Hamas’ demands.
More important than a ceasefire deal with Hamas, a hostage release deal, and the ongoing tensions in the North, stands the ultimate prize – the normalization deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel backed and spearheaded by the United States. The US and its allies in the region are working hard to ensure that the next step after reaching a hostage deal and a ceasefire in Gaza - which they believe will lead to a ceasefire with Hezbollah, and to a permanent ceasefire - will lead to their true priority – the deal between the US, Saudia Arabia and Israel.
The deal would be a historic strategic milestone that would potentially solve the big conflict in the Middle East, while shifting the balance of power in the region- strengthening the moderate US-Saudi led axis while weakening Iran’s axis of evil. Saudi Crown Price Mohammad Bin Salman would score a major defense pact with the US, Israel would gain stability and security, and Biden would bring home a major foreign policy win, just in time for the US general elections, while strengthening American influence in the region.
This deal comes with a huge price tag for Netanyahu – he will have to seriously address a framework for a two-state solution, and accept the PA as a potential ruling force in postwar Gaza. When looking at the big picture and at the dilemmas Israel faces, it is clear that this deal stands above all other domestic political considerations, and the leadership of Israel must do what it takes to achieve this goal.